There is a great deal of anticipation and momentum building as we near the Copenhagen meeting in December.
Success at this hugely important climate summit requires almost 200 parties to find an agreement to balance two linked, but opposite, global problems – “too little energy, too much CO”.
Developing countries want to raise standard of living (and energy consumption). Developed countries want security of supply. All countries have the challenge of climbing out of global recession while adopting greener energy and technology with its higher cost.
To all of this is added geopolitics, with 90% of oil&gas reserves controlled by national oil companies (NOCs); 60% of oil reserves are in the Middle East (the three largest are Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq). For gas, 33% are in the FSU and 40% in the Middle East.
A stated aim of the Copenhagen meetings is to limit global temperature increase to a “safe” level – between 2C and 1.5C, compared with pre-industrial levels.
It is estimated that global greenhouse-gas emissions need to be cut by at least 50% below 1990 levels by 2050.
Against a background of continued growth in global energy demand, making rapid progress on CO reductions looks very challenging, with 87% of current world energy coming from fossil fuels (oil, gas and coal), 6% from each of nuclear and hydroelectric and only 1% from other renewables (wind, wave, solar and biomass).
Preparations for Copenhagen are complicated by two parallel-track negotiations for a new global climate-change agreement. Track one comprises the 192 parties to the 1992 UN Work Convention on Climate Change (including the US) which are discussing long-term co-operative action to combat climate change.
Track two comprises the 184 parties to the 1997 Kyoto Protocol (not the US) which are discussing post-2012 emission reduction commitments for industrialised nations.
Track one is emerging as the main focus. Since Poznan (December 2008), progress has been slow as parties discuss binding targets for mid-term emission reductions (2020) for developing countries, a long-term global emission target, and action by, and financing for, developing countries to reduce their emissions.
The Copenhagen meeting is the final round of negotiations started by the 2007 Bali Action Plan to conclude a new international climate-change agreement to replace the Kyoto Protocol, which ends in 2012.
The parties’ aim and hope is to:
Enhance action to assist the most vulnerable and the poorest to adapt to the impacts of climate change.
Set ambitious emission-reduction targets for industrialised countries.
Agree nationally appropriate mitigation actions by developing countries with the necessary support.
Significantly scale-up financial and technological resources.
Establish an equitable governance structure.
The EU is committed to a challenging 20% reduction in emissions by 2020 compared with 1990 levels, irrespective of the Copenhagen agreement.
However, if other developed/developing countries make sufficiently “ambitious commitments”, this may increase to 30% (by 2020 compared with 1990 levels) to include the purchase of carbon credits.
As lawyers in the North Sea, and globally, our challenge in supporting Copenhagen and beyond must be to do all we can to align ourselves closely with the industry to eliminate inefficiencies, reduce costs and be facilitating, creative and cutting-edge in our agreements.
Penelope Warne is head of energy at CMS Cameron McKenna, which has 55 offices in 24 countries
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