Infield Energy Analysts sees an $80billion market for new fixed production facilities worldwide over the next five years. The consultancy says this represents an increase of more than 50% in expenditure levels as compared with the preceding period 2004-08, which saw investment totalling $54billion.
However, Infield warns that Europe and the US Gulf of Mexico are losing their place to Asia as the primary market for fixed platforms.
Its analysts say in their latest Perspectives Fixed Platforms Market Update Report 2009/13 that the world economy has shifted from its traditional US-Europe axis to Asia; moreover, demand for energy is similarly shifting.
Asia is now forecast to attract the most investment and largest number of fixed platforms installed.
And, within Asia, it is Vietnam that looks like leading, with a fourfold increase in installed fixed platform structures forecast over the next five years.
Contrast this with Europe and the US Gulf, both of which are mature provinces and therefore markets for large installations.
Infield particularly points out that, in US waters, the industry has matured to the point where the best opportunities currently lie in deepwater, which points to floaters and subsea technologies as fixed installation technologies are untenable.
Indeed, North America is the only region that shows a fall in Infield’s five-year forecast.
However, Infield points out that, on average, North American fixed platform installations are deployed in typically deeper waters and therefore, on a per unit basis, are likely to command more capital investment.
Globally, Infield expects the fixed platforms population to increase at an average of 2% per annum over the period.
Interestingly, the firm’s analysts reckon that the current period of uncertainty driven by recession and volatile oil prices may see oil companies still willing to invest to favour fixed platforms over other technologies.
“In times of uncertainty and petroleum-price volatility, those active in the offshore industry tend to ‘go back to basics’; project price scheduling gates are often reviewed downwards, or at least scaled back, and investments with tangible and immediate returns are prioritised,” Infield said at the report’s launch.
“To this end, the fixed platform market has, due to its comparably low capital expenditure requirements, established engineered designs and focus on operationally simpler shallow waters, remained historically more insulated than other sectors to changing economic fortunes.”
In terms of the type of platform solution being chosen, piled platforms remain the most dominant type of installation.
These types of platform represented close to 70% of installations from 2004 to 2008, and their popularity is expected to increase between 2009 and 2013, when they will grow to represent more than 80% of the market. All in all, Infield expects the global fixed platform population to increase to more than 1,800 units in water depths to 375m (1,230ft).
