The Scottish Government is to establish an expert commission to examine how an independent Scotland could maximise returns from North Sea oil and gas.
The announcement came as part of a new paper on plans for oil and gas if Scotland votes in favour of independence next year.
The paper details three overarching principles which underpin the proposed fiscal regime, stating that it must support and incentivise production and promote long-term stability and certainty.
Stability measures would include a commitment to formal consultation before future reforms and specific clarity on the fiscal treatment of decommissioning costs.
Last week a report by the Office for Budget Responsibility predicted the North Sea share of UK GDP would fall from 0.4% to 0.2% by 2018, and drop to just 0.03% by 2041, compared to a 0.05% last year.
“Almost all oil production and more than half of total gas production over the next three decades will take place in Scottish waters,” said Mr Salmond.
“And of course, only through independence would Scotland receive the tax revenues from this production
“This paper restates the Scottish Government commitment to establish an oil fund when the fiscal conditions allow. The decision by successive UK governments to spend all the oil revenues rather than investing them represents a lost opportunity for Scotland.
“Norway established its oil fund in 1990, although it did not start transferring money into the fund until 1996. The fund is now worth £450 billion, equivalent to £90,000 per person in Norway, and is the largest sovereign wealth fund in the world.
“With Westminster having squandered the opportunities of the first half, it’s up to us to make a better job of the second half. We will provide optimum conditions for the oil and gas industry to innovate and thrive in a globally competitive environment.”
WATCH ALEX SALMOND DISCUSS SCOTLAND’S OIL REVENUES IN OUR VIDEO BELOW
Industry body Oil and Gas UK said it welcomed the increased focus on the importance of the North Sea industry that the independence debate was bringing.
“Predictability and long-term planning are what the industry requires of any government, particularly in the fiscal regime and the licensing and regulatory framework,” said the body’s chief executive Malcolm Webb.
“The industry will also welcome government support in ensuring access to capital for growth for smaller companies,
“with developing the domestic and international supply chains, with innovation and the deployment of new technologies, as well as help in widening and deepening the skills pool.
“Oil & Gas UK is already working constructively with both the UK and Scottish governments on these important issues. We will look forward to seeing the work of the Scottish Government’s new Oil and Gas Expert Commission when it ultimately reports.”
A spokesman for the UK government acknowledged the importance of the North Sea oil resource, but said the oil revenue fluctuations would leave an independent Scotland vulnerable.
A UK Government spokesman said: “Everyone agrees oil is a valuable resource. That’s why the UK Government has delivered a series of tax reliefs aimed at maximising investment in the North Sea. It’s also why Sir Ian Wood is leading a review on how we maximise the economic benefits of oil and gas production.
“However, independent OBR forecasts show North Sea oil is also a volatile and declining resource. Basing Scotland’s long-term economic future on over-optimistic projections is irresponsible.
“Even on the Scottish Government’s preferred share of oil revenues, public spending in Scotland is £8 billion higher than the taxes raised. With oil representing 20% of those revenues, the Scottish economy would be hugely vulnerable to volatility.
“Together within the UK, we have the broad shoulders to spread the risks and maximise the benefits.”
Scottish Liberal Democrats leader Willie Rennie, however, the claim that the remaining value of oil would be worth “£300,000 to every man, woman and child in Scotland”.
Mr Salmond is “conveniently ignoring the most basic economic truths that corporate profits and government tax revenue are two very different things”, he said.
“Alex Salmond should withdraw this disingenuous claim and explain the facts of why he believes Scotland would be better managing a volatile, declining and finite resource without the strength of the broad UK tax base behind it.
“When predicting oil revenues it’s sensible to be cautious because it is such an unpredictable resource.
“But the Nationalists need to be reckless to make their sums add up. There is already a £23.9 billion black hole between the Nationalists’ most optimistic figures and the Office for Budget Responsibility’s more cautious estimate. That represents over two-thirds of the current Scottish Government budget.
“If the Nationalists don’t want to use oil tax, which would represent a sixth of Scotland’s tax take, to pay for public services they’d either have to cut services or increase taxes. That is the basic reality of their claims.
Oil economist Professor Alex Kemp said the principles in the report would allow the commission to consider more detailed policies and mechanisms for the energy industry in Scotland.
“The Scottish Government’s commitment to formal consultation with the industry in advance of any reforms will provide the reassurance and predictability that the sector requires,” he said.
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