UK Chancellor George Osborne has warned that a $20 (£12) fall in the price of a barrel of oil in an independent Scotland would cost 11,000 jobs.
The Conservative MP said the situation would force the country to take drastic action to protect the economy and pressure would grow on it to leave a shared currency union.
Mr Osborne claimed the economic shock would have to be absorbed by Scottish taxpayers alone and the government in Edinburgh could be forced to “dramatically” cut public spending or raise taxes in response.
He said Scotland was insulated from the impact of falling oil prices as part of the UK.
Mr Osborne said: “Under independence, if the Scottish Government did not have the flexibility to cut interest rates – and lacked the fiscal risk sharing it currently has – it would have to respond to a fall in oil revenues by cutting public spending dramatically or raising taxes hugely in response.
“The Treasury analysis published today shows that for each $20 fall in the oil price, an independent Scotland would lose 11,000 jobs, whereas if it remained part of the UK it wouldn’t lose any.” Mr Osborne said the global oil price fell by more than $60 between 2008-9.
“Scotland would be forced to take more drastic fiscal measures in times of crisis, and the pressure would quickly grow to leave the pound so that Scotland could regain control of its interest rates and its exchange rates,” he added.
A Scottish Government spokeswoman claimed the country had a broad tax base and was not overly dependent on the North Sea with the sector making up 15% of receipts between 2000-1 and 2011-12.
“As proposed by the Fiscal Commission Working Group, an independent Scotland would establish a long-term savings fund and a short-term stabilisation fund,” she added.
“These revenues can be drawn on during periods when fluctuations in oil and gas tax revenues reduce tax revenues below expected levels.
“This would avoid the need for rapid and unplanned spending cuts suggested by the Treasury’s modelling and the associated temporary loss of jobs that it implies.”
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