The UK’s independent climate change advisors have given “unequivocal advice” that surplus emissions should not be carried forward into the Fourth Carbon Budget.
In a letter sent to minister Graham Stuart today the Climate Change Committee (CCC) congratulated the Government for meeting its legal obligations under the Third Carbon Budget, but said surplus emissions “must not” be carried forward to provide extra room in later budgets.
The Third Carbon Budget (2018 to 2022) was met with a surplus, assisted by the economy-shrinking effects of the pandemic. The net carbon account for that period was 2,153 million tonnes of CO2e (excluding international aviation and shipping) and was reached with 391 MtCO2e spare – or around 15% of the budget, based on final 2022 emissions.
At the end of a carbon budget, the Committee must advise on the carry forward of any ‘surplus’. The CCC says its advice has always been provided “on the basis that there would be no carry-forward of surplus” and that UK’s aim should be to meet and outperform carbon budgets through strong actions to reduce emissions.
Indeed, its advice notes that any loosening via surplus would put the UK’s 2030 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and the Sixth Carbon Budget “at very serious risk.”
For that reason it urges says policymakers should be “accelerating, not slowing down, emissions reductions” in all sectors outside electricity supply.
Even with current progress, the Fourth Carbon Budget will need to be “overachieved” to put the UK on a sensible pathway to the Sixth Carbon Budget and net zero by 2050.
It also cautioned that most of the surplus in the Third Carbon Budget was due to “predominantly external factors” like the pandemic and decisions on the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), while in most sectors outside electricity supply, including transport and buildings, the UK is “not on track”.
CCC interim chairman Piers Forster said: “We congratulate the Government on meeting the latest emissions target – the Climate Change Act is working.
“But the path ahead is tougher and we risk losing momentum if future legal targets are loosened on a technicality. The UK is already substantially off track for 2030 and the Government must resist the temptation to take their foot off the accelerator.”
The letter is the latest in a series of warnings made by the CCC in recent months. In its 15th progress report to government last summer, the Committee said the UK had “lost its clear global leadership position on climate action”.
While it remained convinced the UK’s Fourth Carbon Budget could be met by the 2027 deadline, the CCC’s confidence in meeting goals from 2030 onwards was “markedly less” than a year prior.
That was later followed by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s rollback of key net-zero policies including in areas such as domestic heating and transport.
Meanwhile the CCC itself awaits new leadership, with CEO Chris Stark set to end his tenure at the end of April. Chief economist James Richardson will serve as interim CEO, but a replacement candidate is yet to be confirmed.
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