Labour’s clean power by 2030 decarbonisation goal will cut UK gas imports for power generation by 57% and lower the risk of price shocks, according to a report.
Energy think tank Ember said the accelerated deployment of low carbon power generation in the clean power plan will reduce total UK gas consumption for power by around 75%.
The report said achieving this demand reduction is “critical” to reduce exposure to global gas market volatility, with the UK’s reliance on imports set to increase from around 45% in 2023 to more than 75% of supply by 2030 due to a decline in UK production.
Cutting reliance on gas for power through the 2030 targets reduces the exposure of UK bill payers to high gas prices and market volatility, Ember said.
“Reducing gas use through a transition to a clean power system is the fastest way to reduce the impact of international gas prices on UK energy bills,” the report stated.
However, Ember warned that a long-term decline in domestic gas production means that plans to build new gas-fired power plants in the UK “locks-in future import reliance”.
“For instance, a UK gas power plant built in 2025 will rely on 80% imported fuel over its lifetime, while a plant built in 2000 was 30% reliant on imports,” the report said.
Gas-fired power with carbon capture
The UK government has outlined plans to build new gas-fired power plants in the UK to provide dispatchable power to support intermittent renewable energy such as offshore wind.
Many of the proposed projects incorporate carbon capture and storage (CCS), including the Net Zero Teesside (NZT) project.
The BP and Equinor joint venture is on track to become the first UK project to integrate gas power and carbon capture scheme.
© Supplied by BPThe NZT project has received backing as part of the UK government’s £21.7 billion CCS investment and is on track to start producing energy in 2028.
Other proposed UK projects which incorporate gas-fired generation with CCS include the HyNet cluster, the Acorn project in Scotland and Viking CCS in the Humber.
In addition, the UK government is also contemplating support for blue hydrogen production projects in Teesside and as part of the HyNet cluster.
Blue hydrogen refers to hydrogen produced using natural gas alongside CCS.
Last year, analyst firm Carbon Tracker warned the plans could derail net zero targets and lead to a significant increase in UK gas demand and imports.
While the North Sea offshore oil and gas sector has advocated for the government to allow for increased domestic production to reduce reliance on imports, Ember said new oil and gas discoveries will make “only a marginal contribution” to slowing the decline in production.
The Ember report also called for the government to minimise biomass generation in the UK power sector due to price volatility and a 95% reliance on imported wood pellets.
Fuel imports for transport and heating
In addition, even if the Labour government achieves its 2030 decarbonisation goals, Ember said that the UK “remains reliant” on fuel imports in transport and home heating.
Ember said efforts to electrify home heating and transport, through heat pumps and electric vehicles, will help to “significantly reduce import reliance for household energy” and reduce overall consumer energy bills.
Report lead author and Ember senior UK energy and climate analyst Frankie Mayo said stability is a key benefit of the government’s clean power goal.
“Cutting UK exposure to international price shocks has benefits for power, for heating and transport,” Mayo said.
“Oil and gas production is in long-term decline, the future energy secure economy will be based on homegrown energy generation.”
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