The European Union’s attempt to cap greenhouse-gas emissions over the next 16 years is threatened again as rising pollution from the bloc’s biggest economies shows even developed nations want to burn cheap coal.
Germany, Europe’s largest economy, boosted consumption of the fuel by 13% in the past four years, while use in Britain rose 22%, BP figures show. While Germany pledged to cut heat-trapping gases 55% by 2030 from 1990 levels, it’s managed 25% so far and is moving in the wrong direction, according to the European Environment Agency.
The EU is seeking to craft a deal in October that would cut greenhouse gases 40% by 2030 in the world’s biggest effort to combat global warming since the Kyoto climate treaty of 1997.
Countries including Poland, which relies on coal to generate more than 80% of its power, want to guarantee their right to use the fuel before signing off on targets they say penalize lower-income nations.
“Both the UK and Germany are on a collision course with Poland,” said Maciej Bukowski, president of the Warsaw Institute of Economic Studies, which has advised Poland on greenhouse gas cuts.
“To cut emissions, it needs to spend a lot of money up front,” he said, predicting a 50% chance the October deadline will slip.
Connie Hedegaard, the EU Climate Action commissioner, sought a deal in the first quarter to bolster the EU’s standing at a United Nations world leaders’ climate summit in September. In March, EU politicians delayed agreeing on the 2030 package until October as Russia annexed Ukraine’s Crimea, boosting the bloc’s focus on energy security.
Germany’s emissions rose even as its production of intermittent wind and solar power climbed five-fold in the past decade. Utilities boosted production from profitable coal-fired plants after Chancellor Angela Merkel decided to close all 17 of the country’s nuclear plants by 2022 in the wake of the Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011.
The country’s fossil-fuel emissions climbed 5.5% to 843 million tons in the four years through 2013, the BP data show.
To meet its commitment, Germany would have to reduce its pollution by about 379 million tons, a further 45%. The BP statistics cover only fossil-fuel burning, which makes up about 88% of the nation’s greenhouse gas output.
Failure of the EU to reach a deal this year risks diluting the global climate agreement due to be forged in Paris in December 2015, said Robert Stavins, director of Harvard University’s Environmental Economics Program. A deal will probably attempt to link national pledges to curb greenhouse gases, based on ‘domestic realities,’ he said.
“If it requires unanimity, it’s going to be very, very difficult,” Stavins said. “Poland is right to be concerned for its economy.”
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