Shale gas produced in the UK could provide more than a third of the nation’s gas supplies within 20 years, a report has found.
While drilling for the natural gas is yet to progress beyond exploration and testing, one possibility would see shale gas meeting 41% of the UK’s total gas needs by 2035.
But a failure to invest in UK gas production could see our dependency on imports rise to 91% in the same time frame.
These potential scenarios are from a wide-ranging report on the trends that shape the UK’s energy landscape, examining the political, economic, technological and social factors that will determine where we get our energy from over the next 20 years and beyond, and how we will use it.
There could be more than five million electric vehicles on the nation’s roads by 2035, and almost all cars on the roads are expected to be electric or hybrid by 2050.
Around six million homes could also be generating their own heat from domestic heat pumps by 2030, if technology continues to improve and is supported by strong government policy and incentives.
But these snapshots of the future are based on widely differing visions on what energy generation, use and consumption in the UK could look like over the coming decades.
The Future Energy Scenarios report, by the National Grid, maps out four potential futures for the energy sector, each reflecting the sustainability, affordability and security in the supply of energy.
A “gone green” model outlines a scenario of more money being available and a greater emphasis on sustainability, in which the economy is growing and there is strong policy and regulation and new environmental targets, all of which are met on time.
Sustainability is not restrained by financial limitations, with money available at both an investment level for energy infrastructure and at a domestic level, via disposable income.
This is in contrast to a “no progression” scenario, in which there is low affordability and low sustainability. A slow economic recovery means less money at both government and consumer level, with less emphasis on policy and regulation, and no new targets. Short term affordability is the focus of government policy, with financial pressures causing political volatility.
Other models include that of “slow progression”, with low affordability and high sustainability, and “low carbon life” – a world of high affordability and low sustainability, with government policy focused on long-term decarbonisation.
Richard Smith, head of energy strategy and policy at the National Grid, said the report was an exploration of a spectrum of “credible and plausible“ scenarios, rather than specific predictions or forecasts, to help inform government and businesses when deciding on future energy policies.
Mr Smith said there was a definite move towards decarbonisation of the UK’s energy markets, and said the targets for achieving 15% of energy consumption from renewable sources by 2020 were “challenging but achievable”.
He said: “We will undoubtedly move towards decarbonisation. In all scenarios we see a bit of deployment of renewable and low carbon technology, but in a ’gone green’ world we see much more and in ’no progression’ we see much less.
“There is some decarbonisation in all scenarios, both in terms of power supply and in terms of consumers and their choices at home in terms of electrification, heat pumps and transport.”
The power supply landscape is expected to change drastically in the next 20 years.
All four scenarios suggest that the majority of coal power stations will close by 2023 as they choose not to comply with emissions requirements, with a move towards renewable sources in each scenario.
But the extent of future renewable energy usage varies widely. Under the most environmentally optimistic scenario, renewable generation could represent 53.8% of installed capacity, contributing more than 50% of the electricity output by 2035/6.
This would largely be made up of wind and solar photovoltaic sources, making up 46% of the supply mix and 43.5% of electricity output.
Under the model of “no progression”, renewable sources would provide 38.2% of energy generation, providing 30% of electricity output.
The slow economic recovery and political volatility of the “no progression“ model also shows a future in which shale gas production would remain at zero by 2030, but under the “low carbon life” scenario this could be as high as 41% of the UK’s total gas supply by 2035.
Under the same model, the UK’s dependency on imported gas could fall to 40% by 2035 – lower than it is today – but could soar to 91% under the “no progression” scenario. All the scenarios also see a decline in North Sea gas production.
Transport is also likely to be affected by the changing energy landscape.
The majority of vehicles on UK roads are currently powered by petrol or diesel, and transport is responsible for 23% of UK consumer’s greenhouse gas emissions in 2012, almost entirely through carbon dioxide emissions.
While there are just 9,000 electric cars on the road today, government promotion of electrification of transport could see this number soar to 5.4 million by 2035.
Demand for lighting in UK homes could more than halve with increases in energy efficiency, falling from 14 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2012 to as low as 6TWh by the late 2020s or early 2030s.
Mr Smith said: “It’s really important that we have an open and transparent discussion about where we get our energy from and how we use it.”
