Russia’s Deputy Finance Minister Maxim Oreshkin said on Friday that the ministry saw the oil price trading around $40 to $60 a barrel for the next seven years.
International prices for oil, Russia’s chief export, have plunged over the year and a half, adding to the pressure on its finances from international sanctions over its part in the crisis in Ukraine.
“In our estimates, one should hardly expect any serious growth of the oil price above $50. The oil industry is changing structurally and it may happen that … the global economy will not need that much oil,” Oreshkin told a conference.
“Therefore, we see a range from $40 to $60 somewhere for the next 7 years. And these are the prices we should base our macroeconomic policy on,” he added.
Russia’s 2016 budget envisages a deficit of 3 percent of gross domestic product, based on an assumed oil price of $40-$50 per barrel.
The international benchmark Brent crude LCOc1 was trading at $39.67 per barrel at 0836 GMT on Friday.
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