The world met in Paris and it brokered a deal that will change our lives. Over the years to come, it will change how we heat our homes, cook our tea, fuel our cars, power our industries, transport our goods, rear our livestock, fell our forests, even light our Christmas trees.
The nations of the world are now committed to arresting the global temperature rise at ‘well below’ 2°C, the temperature beyond which scientists claim cataclysm lies. The text commits developed nations to provide $100 billion every year to assist those nations of the world most affected by climate change, an almost inconceivable figure. And finally, the text commands each nation to verify its progress. All the more important in a climate in which global companies like Volkswagen can develop ‘cheat devices’ to falsify emissions.
So what does the Paris Accord mean for Scotland? I’m glad you asked. Scotland is blessed with energy options: oil rich, windy, wet, powerful seas, high tides, atop coal reserves, frackable strata, a nuclear pioneer. Oh and there are major oil and gas reserves just off the coast. Energy wealth is not Scotland’s problem, it is all in the mix.
The Scottish Government has the most ambitious climate change targets of any nation. The Climate Change (Scotland) Act commits the Government to reduce emissions by 42% by 2020 compared to 1990 levels, and by 80% by 2050 through a series of annual targets. The only problem is that the Scottish Government has never met them; a fact commented upon by folks I met in Paris. That is not to fault the ambitions, which are laudable, but merely to note that there is work yet to be done against our current ambitions.
It is clear that Paris will have a material effect upon Scotland. Not only does the commitment to “well below” 2°C mean a ratcheting up of existing climate legislation in the medium term, but the Paris text includes a commitment to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, a much shorter timescale than previously anticipated.
To prepare for tomorrow, the UK and Scottish Governments together with industry must plan today. Fuel switching from coal to gas and ultimately from gas to green electricity will be challenging. Some 600,000 jobs in Scotland depend upon North Sea oil extraction and the wider supply chain. More than half of Scotland’s households rely upon gas for heating and cooking. A quarter of our energy spend is transport. Do you drive an electric car? I already know the answer; Scotland has 1,100 electric cars out of a fleet of 3.2 million. Decarbonising the economy will cost money and it will require a change in our behaviour. Current estimates of cost across the UK range from £400 billion to £1.3 trillion by 2050.
We already have a portent of what is to come and a recognition of what must be well managed. The continued slump in oil price has hit the sector hard. The price of a barrel of Brent Crude oil is now just $37. Over 5,000 jobs have already been lost and twice that number may yet be lost in the short term. With price so low, the only growth industry in the North Sea looks like being the decommissioning of existing rigs and structures.
To survive, the hydrocarbon industries of the Northeast must evolve, embrace innovation and engage with smart technology. Helpfully that plays to the strength of the Scottish industry. Despite recent developments in Peterhead, I believe that Carbon Capture & Storage cannot be abandoned, and I will continue to apply pressure in London and Brussels to ensure both that the role of CCS is acknowledged in all climate actions, and that funding is made available. Further, interconnection of the EU’s electricity grids must be accelerated. We must harness the potential of offshore wind and wave, and transport this energy to other nations around the North Sea. That is why I am pushing for the North Sea offshore grid to be the first project to receive funds from the Connecting Europe Facility – a fund dedicated to delivering infrastructure projects between member states.
It will take time for the full implications of the Paris Agreement to be calculated by policy wonks and industry experts. However, one thing is clear: the deal is a strong signal that business as usual is no longer enough. The task for the Scottish (and UK) Governments will be to guide the evolution of the North Sea industry, safeguarding employment, driving innovation, keeping the heating on, and all the while achieving even more ambitious climate change targets.
Ian Duncan is a Conservative MEP for Scotland.
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