In most countries you would be unlikely to see politicians rejoicing at a major fall in revenue from one of its prime industrial sectors, yet with the publication of Government Revenue and Expenditure Scotland, that is exactly what we have seen from Labour and Tory politicians alike, who seem oblivious to the impact the oil downturn has had on families and individuals.
The headline figures from GERS show an increase in Scotland’s notional deficit due to a sharp decline in oil revenues. I say notional deficit because these figures show Scotland’s fiscal position within the UK. GERS does not show the deficit an independent Scotland. If anything it is an indication of our economic performance under remote control from Westminster.
Instead of implementing strategies to boost our economy, there has been a fast formed queue of unionist politicians ready to hold up GERS figures and proclaim they mean Scotland could not afford to be independent- and why? Well there are claims from unionists that a deficit of 9.5% of GDP in Scotland is reason enough that we couldn’t go it alone – but they neglect the fact that the UK’s faced similar deficits of 10.1% in 2009-2010 and 9.2% in 2010-2011. In fact the UK has been in deficit for 43 of the last 50 years.
During the referendum people were told ad nauseum that Scotland was dependent on oil, yet despite the price of oil more than halving, Scotland’s economy continued to grow. Indeed onshore revenues, which include the economic activity in Aberdeen, grew by £1.9bn boosted by the Scottish Government’s expanded capital programme of projects like the AWPR.
We need a government that will support our economy, but when asked UK ministers respond with tired jibes about the low oil price and its impact on public finances. Instead, what they should perhaps be explaining is why it took the UK Government so long to provide meaningful support to the oil and gas industry that would have actually boosted oil revenues and saved jobs.
Either as part of the UK or as an independent country Scotland will have to be fiscally responsible. The ‘status quo’ doesn’t exist anymore. We can either carry on as part of the UK facing the economic consequences and cuts of Brexit Britain or we could face the future as an independent member of the EU’s single market of 500m people boosting our economy by investing in our people and infrastructure. I know which I would choose.
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