OK, so here’s the problem. If, as a consequence of Trump’s effective withdrawal of support for Europe against aggression by Russia in particular, the UK and the other countries in NATO are being obliged to spend more on defence, how can they also afford to spend money on achieving so called net zero and a just transition?
Let’s be honest. The parlous state of the UK economy is hardly able to support its meagre efforts to deal with climate change, let alone increase defence spending in any meaningful way.
With growth at a measly 0.1% and the Bank of England suggesting that might be about as good as we’re going to get for the foreseeable future, then we would seem to have engineered ourselves into a position of being caught up the proverbial creek, not just without a paddle but with a pretty leaky boat and no repair kit.
This is an extremely serious situation. The political landscape has changed almost overnight.
Although Trump gave us plenty of warning, few thought he’d carry through on his threat to stop the war in Ukraine by giving Putin pretty much everything he wanted even before any negotiations started.
And, by effectively declaring that the USA won’t come to Europe’s aid if Putin starts another “special operation”, it opens the door for Putin to invade the Baltic States or any other country – whether in NATO or not – and the USA won’t now bat an eyelid.
If anyone thinks Putin has not already planned exactly how to do that then I have a bridge and a couple of castles to sell you.
Raising the UK’s defence budget to 2.5% of GDP from the current 2.3% as has been suggested would only increase the spend per annum by about £6bn according to the Institute of Fiscal Studies.
Given inflation, that’s about what just one of the new aircraft carriers would probably cost today. It’s pathetically small.
Poland is already spending over 4% of GDP on defence and is pushing NATO to go for 5%.
Poland is pretty much on the front line, and they understand the risk posed by Russia better than most.
But could a country like the UK afford to spend 5% of GDP on defence?
Well, it’s actually pretty much what we were spending during the Cold War so in theory the answer is “yes”, except of course that was 34 years ago and public spending priorities have changed a lot since then.
Let’s also not forget the UK is industrially a lot weaker now and we’ve even managed to damage our ultimate lifebelt, the Square Mile.
The IFS think that would cost us £80bn per annum.
Today the UK Government is spending around £1.5bn per annum on various renewables projects and, unless I’ve got my sums wrong, has committed to about another £1bn per annum in support of CCUS projects.
Add in various other projects such as dualling roads, building new railways and more houses, plus adding another runway to Heathrow, and it’s within reason to suggest that with delaying or abandoning funding for renewables and other projects, the 5% figure or something close to it may well be attainable.
It would also provide time to look again at the current energy transition plans as they should also be reconsidered, given Trump’s decision to abandon previous US policy on military support for Europe.
The reality is that by proceeding down the route of more offshore wind, enlarging the grid and extensive battery stores and even small modular nuclear reactors, we’re providing Putin with the ideal target list.
Ukraine is proof of this. It’s another defence issue we’ve ignored so far, although you’d have thought the destruction of a bunch of cables in the Baltic might have alerted someone in Whitehall to the potential threat.
So, what to do? Should we temporarily give up Miliband’s net zero plans?
If growth continues to elude the UK economy, then we probably should. And, let’s not forget that the entire UK contributes less than 1% to global emissions of greenhouse gases anyway.
Sure, it would be a drastic move, but if as it seems the US security guarantee to Europe is lifted, then we probably have no other option but to divert those funds into the defence industry and increase military recruiting levels.
At the same time, the government would have to revise its position on future oil and gas developments, particularly gas.
Trump wants to sell us more gas so we should put maximum effort into producing more of our own at least for the time being.
Although it pains me to say so, the new gas field found in Yorkshire by Egdon Resources could provide the sort of lifeline we need.
And, because we really can’t do all this on our own, it means reconsidering our position regarding the EU both in terms of manufacturing arms rather than importing them and looking again at the call for a European army.
It should also make people think again about EU membership.
We need European solidarity to counter the influence of the growth in autocracy on both sides of the Atlantic.
I like a challenge, but the next few years don’t seem like they are going to be a lot of fun.
The sooner we start thinking strategically and practically, the sooner we can start dealing with the situation with confidence.
At the moment, I think I’d prefer a drone factory rather than one making wind turbines.
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