While on holiday in Skye recently I had the pleasure of meeting a forester who was involved with the planting of Sitka spruce as part of a carbon offset scheme.
He had noted changes in the weather patterns on the island, and wanted to know if any reliance can be placed on climate predictions – particularly when the weather in Sleat seemed so unpredictable.
Climate is a term used to refer to a region’s long-term weather patterns. It can be measured in a number of ways: temperature, rainfall, frequency of severe weather, etc.
Knowledge of climate change – or the long-term variation of the long-term weather patterns – is of strategic importance to us all. It means that we can minimise our exposure to weather risk and maximise business opportunities in the future.
At a national level the Met Office is tasked to deliver world-leading scientific evidence on climate variability and climate change to meet the needs of the UK government.
The aim is to ensure that we have the information needed to navigate the risks and opportunities presented by changes in the climate. The scientific evidence has been used to inform the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, the latest of which was published in the last couple of months.
The headline results from the IPCC report provide sobering reading. The IPCC report finds it is extremely likely – with a 95% probability – that human influence has been the dominant cause of warming since the mid-20th century.
Our influence has already been detected in changes in the water cycle, reductions in snow and ice, sea level rise and changes in extreme weather. The degree of future climate change depends very strongly on cumulative future greenhouse gas emissions from human sources.
Climate change does not discriminate. Impacts of change will be felt just as much over the sea as over land.
Changing sea levels will potentially have the single most significant impact for the oil and gas industry. This is a concern particularly for coastal assets, as oil has to come ashore somewhere, and sea level rise will have the most impact near the coast.
Sea level rise may impact the industry in relation to its influence on coastal storm surges, wave height and safety considerations, which could lead to assets being deemed unsafe.
Long-term planning for changes is complicated by the fact that sea level rises will not be uniform. Some regions will see greater rises than others. However, global average sea level has risen by 20cm over the 20th century.
Another key finding from the IPCC report is that climate change will increase “the odds” of some types of extreme weather events. We can expect to see an increase in the severity of typhoons and hurricanes, although not an increase in the overall number.
This has significant implications for vulnerable coastal and offshore infrastructures, as we saw in the devastation Hurricane Andrew and Hurricane Katrina caused to oil facilities on the Gulf coast of the US.
Closer to home, and following our experience of last winter, we are only too aware that persistent extreme weather conditions can have a significant impact on oil and gas operations.
We have seen production shutdowns due to wave heights breaching safety thresholds, platforms running short of water and power, and movement of personnel to and from platforms disrupted due to restricted helicopter access
The Met Office has a team of climate consultants focusing on client-specific work. Among other studies, these experts have provided guidance to energy companies working in the marine environment around the UK and for other locations worldwide.
One of the key roles of our climate specialists is to help inform mitigation and adaption plans for energy companies.
Are assets of suitable design to meet the expected climate changes? What about the coastal assets? Will there be greater risk and exposure to flooding and inundation? Will tropical storms become more frequent or intense? Can the supply of freshwater be relied upon?
While climate change is a threat, it may also bring new opportunities.
We have seen a 30% reduction in September sea ice cover over the past 30 years in the Arctic (we use September as it is the annual minimum amount).
Scientists are predicting there will be a nearly entirely ice-free Arctic Ocean in September before the middle of this century in a “business as usual” emissions scenario.
Although bad news for the global climate overall, the retreat of the ice edge will open up new potential shipping routes, and greater seasonal access to certain geographical areas.
Regardless of whether we see it as an opportunity or threat, climate change is something that needs to be considered by all industries making long-term decisions. From the energy industry to our forester in Skye, the need for accurate guidance is the same.
John Mitchell is a metocean scientist at the Met Office
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