Analysts have poured cold water on the idea that the recent output deal from Opec and non-Opec countries will lead to a major rebalancing of the oil market.
The Thomson Reuters Oil Research and Forecasts team said it was not yet clear how exports would be limited as a result of the deal.
But the team said it was “very likely” that Saudi Arabia would still be in favour of rebalancing the market when the next Opec meeting on cuts comes around in May.
The general view is that non-OPEC producers will still want to maintain their market share against Opec rivals.
Researchers did say, however, that the global consensus on reducing output that was apparent at the Opec meetings in Vienna was “important to see”.
The research team also expects to see “some changes” in exports from Opec following the implementation of output cuts.
Shakil Begg, head of oil research and forecasts, Thomson Reuters, said: “The UAE, Kuwait and Qatar have already announced reduced exports for January, while Saudi Arabia appears keen to maintain its market share in Asia and potentially reduce volumes to the US.”
He said Iraq’s preliminary schedule for January loading pointed to an increase in exports compared to December levels, which conflicts with requirements to reduce output as a result of the producer deal.
The team also said Iran continued to face challenges in increasing crude oil exports beyond the record level of 2.7 million bpd seen in October.
Mr Begg said: “November saw a sharp decline in the country’s crude exports by more than 500,000 bpd and according to shipping sources the trend is likely to continue in December, with further declines projected,” he said.
“In spite of having greater headroom to increase crude oil production than other OPEC rivals, the country has struggled to increase exports further with buying interest from Asian powerhouses waning.”