Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cut its forecasts for Brent and WTI crude prices next year on rising global supplies, predicting OPEC will lose influence over the oil market amid the U.S. shale boom.
The bank is becoming more confident in the scale and sustainability of U.S. shale oil production and said U.S. benchmark prices need to decline to $75 a barrel for a slowdown in output growth. Brent will average $85 a barrel in the first quarter, down from a previous forecast of $100, and West Texas Intermediate will sell for $75 a barrel in the period, from an earlier estimate of $90, analysts including Jeffrey Currie wrote in a report.
The biggest members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries are discounting supplies to defend market share rather than cutting production to boost prices that have collapsed into a bear market. The highest U.S. output in almost 30 years is helping increase stockpiles as exporters including Saudi Arabia reduce prices to stimulate demand.
“We believe that OPEC will no longer act as the first- mover swing producer and that U.S. shale oil output will be called upon to fill this role,” Goldman said in the report. “Our forecast also reflects the realization of a loss of pricing power by core-OPEC.”
Any near-term OPEC production cut will be modest until there is sufficient evidence of a slowdown in U.S. shale oil production growth, according to the report. Global producers may need to cut almost 800,000 barrels a day of output next year to limit a build in inventories and ultimately balance the global oil market in 2016, Goldman said.
Brent for December settlement decreased as much as $1.02 to $85.11 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange and was at $85.30 at 11:17 a.m. local time. WTI fell 50 cents to $80.51 a barrel.
Accelerating non-OPEC production growth outside North America, including from Brazil, Mexico and Azerbaijan, will outpace demand growth, leaving the oil market oversupplied, according to the report. The increased output is forcing producers to reduce prices to lure buyers.
State-owned Saudi Arabian Oil Co. on Oct. 1 cut prices for all grades and to all regions for November. The Asian price of Arab Light was cut by $1 a barrel to a discount of $1.05 to the average of Oman and Dubai crudes, the benchmark published by Platts, the energy-information division of McGraw-Hill Cos. That’s the lowest since December 2008.
“Core-OPEC will not cut production significantly in coming months,” Goldman said in its report. The drop in Saudi Arabian oil supply to markets last month reflects an increase in domestic stockpiles, and not a production cut, the bank said.
Countries from South Korea to India are benefiting from weak prices by seeking to diversify their crude suppliers.
India will seek U.S. crude if the government eases a ban on domestic crude exports, Indian Oil Minister Dharmendra Pradhan said last week. ConocoPhillips in September shipped its first cargo of Alaska North Slope crude to South Korea in eight years, making rare use of a Bill Clinton-era exemption to U.S. oil- export restrictions.
Record U.S. oil output is buffering global crude prices and critical to the world’s supply balance amid the threat of disruptions, even as the ban on domestic exports remains in place, Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz said last week. The department is preparing a report examining how the potential lifting of a ban on domestic crude exports would affect fuel prices.
“Our confidence in a 2015 oversupplied global oil market has increased,” according to the Goldman the note. “In 2016, we expect stabilizing fundamentals with moderate cuts to OPEC production once the slowdown in U.S. shale oil production growth is apparent.”
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