Iranian delegates were told not to attend a meeting in Doha of the OPEC member countries unless it was to agree to production output changes, according to a top energy analyst.
Richard Mallinson, a geopolitical analyst with Energy Aspects, said it was understood the country had been told not to turn up unless it was going to make a deal with the other member countries.
He said from the outset, Iran’s position has been “very clear” on whether it would be willing to participate.
In the wake of the meeting the falling price in stocks weighed heavily on international markets.
The meeting between the countries had been aimed at freezing output and reassuring markets that a recent recovery in prices could be sustained.
Mallinson said:”I think Iran’s position has been very consistent since February, when the idea for this meeting surfaced, Iran never suggested it was going to participate. From what I understand it wasn’t that Iran didn’t show up, it was more Iran was told if it wasn’t going to agree to a deal it shouldn’t turn up.
“We can’t place all the responsibility on Iran’s shoulders – the questions is why was the meeting scheduled with the knowledge Iran would not come.
“I think the problem is, once you schedule a meeting like this, you have created an expectation and a mindset that something positive will happen.
“This was a much bigger undertaking, just getting it in the diaries. If you haven’t done the groundwork or the diplomacy then the scene has been set up for a let-down of the kind we have seen this weekend. There must have been a belief that a deal was possible.”
According to reports, Oman’s oil minister Mohammed al-Rhumy is quoted as saying a deal was not possible because the countries “didn’t know” Iran was coming.
Mallinson also warned the unsuccessful meeting is likely to have ramifications for other countries already challenged by the changing market.
He said: “Venezuela have a serious economic crisis at the moment, Nigeria and Iraq are suffering – all of these countries are seeing their production being disrupted.
“The Qatari Minister said following Sunday’s meeting there was more time for consultation. I think realistically if they were unable to reach a deal it’s very hard to see what changes in the next few months will happen. Iran will be determined it’s not going to change its production levels.
“I think the production levels will still be lower than the Iranian’s suspect.”
Recommended for you
