WIND and solar, accompanied by hydro power, biomass and geothermal energy, will pave the way to a 100% renewable power generation, “very probably within the first half of this century”, according to Germany’s Energy Watch Group. The organisation sees wind and solar as being particularly important vehicles to achieving this – and especially wind.
“Based on past growth rates, we can say with some confidence that the fossil and nuclear power sector could virtually disappear over the next two decades, provided wind and solar power are no more blocked politically, as has been the case in so many nations with a ‘nuclear power culture’,” says EWG, which is underpinned by the Ludwig-Bolkow Foundation and describes itself as an international network of scientists and parliamentarians.
EWG says, in a new 195-page report, that the roadblocks against wind power growth, such as fluctuations of wind, lack of grid connections and lack of reserve capacities, will be overcome through planning; growing price incentives derived from the observed increase of oil prices, and the restructuring of electricity markets (unbundling). Moreover, it says technical improvements will further propel the wind industry to deliver ever more affordable, secure and clean electricity.
EWG highlights the enormous pace at which new renewables technologies have been entering the marketplace.
It says this has been happening “on an industrial scale”, with an average growth rate of 34.9% per annum for global wind power and 31.3% for solar.
Over the 10 years from 1998 to 2007, the mean growth rate of annual additions was 30.4% for wind and 42.9% for solar PV. In 2007, annual solar PV shipments were estimated at 4,279MW – up a massive 69% – while net wind power additions numbered 19,553MW. EWG expects this spanking pace to be sustained for years to come – especially wind.
The group is outspoken in its criticism of the International Energy Agency, although it admits that the Paris-based organisation’s latest World Energy Outlook is a marked improvement over its prior analyses.
That said, EWG warns: “The IEA outlook remains attached to oil, gas, coal and nuclear, and renewables seem to have no chance to reverse this trend.
“This organisation, whose constitutional task would be to protect consumers from price hikes and to deliver energy security, has been deploying misleading data on renewables for many years.”
EWG adds: “It acknowledges that the ‘risk of a supply crunch’ for oil after 2010 could be ‘driving up oil prices – possibly to record highs’.
“But then it fails to give a structurally revised perspective of affordable renewables and their potential for replacing fossil energy sources on a large scale and on solid economical grounds.
“Instead, it views wind power and other new renewable energies delivering only a 4% share of global electricity by 2030.
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