INTERNATIONAL security and risk mitigation specialist AKE Group has conducted an in-depth study of violence in Iraq to map the countrywide level of risk on a provincial scale. The basic message is that Iraq is a place where extreme care must still be taken, even in the oil-rich province of al-Basrah.
AKE has collated statistics covering attacks countrywide in Q2 this year to work out which areas are currently the most hazardous. Incidents ranging from cross-border military strikes in Iraqi Kurdistan to shootings in al-Basrah have been taken into account.
Key findings include that the capital, Baghdad, remains the most hostile part of the country. The capital alone accounted for 36% of all recorded violence. The dubious title of “most hazardous area in Iraq” was, however, contested by the province of an-Ninawa in the north.
AKE reports that this region accounted for 33% of Iraqi violence over the analysis period, with hostilities particularly concentrated in the ethnically divided and politically contested city of al-Mawsil (Mosul).
In contrast, al-Basrah was far more stable, accounting for only 3% of nationwide violence. However, AKE’s analysts warn that the risk of targeted attacks against foreign investors, domestic political figures and international journalists remains high, demonstrated by the recent attack against US ambassador Christopher Hill.
Ambassador Hill was targeted by a roadside bomb while travelling in the usually quiet southern province of adh-Dhi Qar.
It is, of course, a concern that security remains a major issue given the many business opportunities now emerging or being touted in Iraq. Moreover, the oil sector is moving forward – albeit progress remains slow – despite recent setbacks in the bidding rounds.
Fortunately, provinces where the oilfields are being recovered and redeveloped saw some of the lowest levels of violence over the analysis period. However, the potential for future violence in these areas remains high, particularly in the ethnically divided northern province of at-Ta’mim.
That said, AKE says there is also extensive potential in the construction, energy, telecommunications and medical sectors in a country racked by an invasion and prolonged insurgency. Its analysts warn that companies looking to benefit from these opportunities need to prepare themselves with intelligence, training, insurance and close protection if they are intent on participating in the private-sector reconstruction of the country.