DESPITE the supposed massive potential for job creation – up to 145,000 according to a report prepared for the Offshore Valuation Group by the Boston Consulting Group – the ability of the UK supply chain to cope is called into question.
Get it wrong and not only would many fewer jobs result, it could also “constrain the ultimate level of resource development”, says the report.
“While supply-chain constraints are possible across all five technologies, they are likely to be most acute for fixed and floating offshore wind, given the relative scale of potential development and the supply-chain elements shared between the two technologies.
“The development of the fixed offshore wind supply chain has been slow, both in the UK and across Europe.”
The report considers the UK Crown Estate’s Round 3 build estimates to be fatuous, a point on which Energy agrees.
“The Crown Estate has estimated a maximum annual deployment of approximately 7.5GW of offshore wind in 2018, with an average rate above 4GW per year between 2015 and 2020. This would result in the vast majority of Round 3 sites being built by 2022.
“For simplicity’s sake, we have used a maximum annual build rate of 5GW per year for fixed offshore wind, equivalent to just under two 7.5MW turbines per day, or three 5MW turbines.
“This could be achieved by 10 turbine installation vessels each installing one turbine per day for 100 days a year, and 10 foundation installation vessels operating at a similar rate (year-round installation is generally not possible due to weather conditions). At this rate, the full UK practical resource for fixed offshore wind could be developed by 2037.”
To get an idea of the scale involved in installing 20GW, the report delves into the amount of steel required for the UK offshore wind build based on floating devices.
“Assuming each MW of floating wind requires 600 tonnes of steel, 12million tonnes of steel would be required each year.
“This is equal to 80% of UK steel demand in 2007, or nearly twice the level consumed by the engineering and construction industries.
“The number of people who would be employed in installing 20GW per year – approximately 200,000 – is half of the size of the UK upstream oil&gas industry and similar to the total automotive workforce.”
Energy considers basing offshore wind’s bill of quantities on floating devices erroneous.
A more appropriate measure would be the 5MW fixed turbines now being installed offshore.
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