Developments in Kuwait are concentrated on the Sabriyah and the Umm Niqa fields, where a total of 50,000bpd of NGL capacity is being added, with completion expected in 2011. Another project at the Sabriyah field should add 160,000bpd more oil production by 2015.
Target reserves being developed are estimated at 2.5billion barrels. A water treatment project at the Greater Burgan field – the second largest in the world – is expected to boost gross capacity by 120,000bpd by 2009.
IEA: “Beyond 2020, we project Kuwait to develop about 6billion barrels of heavy and extra-heavy oil resources.
“In addition to the 3.3million bpd from conventional sources in 2030, the extra 500,000bpd from those projects are counted as non-conventional in our reference scenario.
ETotal Kuwaiti oil production is projected to reach 3.8million bpd in 2030.”
Outwith the Middle East, Venezuela ranks as Opec’s biggest player in terms of reserves base; moreover, it has the greatest long-term potential for expanding production.
Several large onshore projects under way involve extra-heavy oil, including Carabobo, which is expected onstream by around 2015 and to deliver up to 1million bpd at peak. Other projects in the Junin, Petro Cedeno and Machete areas target reserves of about 1billion barrels each.
The agency notes that, over the longer term, there is strong potential for new extra-heavy oil projects like Carabobo if investment can be mobilised.
Of course, Venezuela is noted for its heavy, rather than light, crudes, where the options are more limited.
The La Ceiba onshore and Corocoro offshore fields together are projected to produce about 100,000bpd by around 2020.
Turning to troubled Nigeria, its proven oil reserves are estimated at 25billion barrels and output averaged 2.3million bpd in 2007.
Besides Chevron’s Agbami development, brought onstream this year, several fields are currently under development, the most important of which are Bonga Southwest, Aparo, Akpo, Bonga Northwest and Usan and Egina – all of them in deep water.
They are projected to add 1.2million bpd of gross capacity by 2015, boosting total production to about 3.6million bpd (taking account of declines at existing fields).
But, as is well known, investment risk in Nigeria is high because of political instability and corruption.
WEO 2008 notes: “Nigeria is seeking an increase in its share of the Opec production ceiling. Considering its huge potential and recent government reforms to oil&gas legislation, we expect the country to produce some 3.7million bpd by 2030.”
From Nigeria to Angola, which the IEA regards as leading the charge in developing offshore production; the forecast is that some 15 projects will come on line before 2015. All but one is located in deep water. The combined reserves of these projects are 5.5billion barrels.
Except in the case of Pazflor, which alone holds some 1billion barrels, Angola is dependent on cluster-style developments such as Gindungo/Canela/Gengibre and Plutao/Satumo/Venus/ Marte. Total production from this group of projects is projected to reach 1million bpd around 2012-13.
The IEA sees this inching up to a bit less than 1.5million bpd in 2015 and dipping below 1million bpd beyond 2020.
“Offshore potential from Angola lies in 26 fields with more than 50million barrels each and total reserves of 3billion barrels,” says WEO 2008.
“However, unless some of those fields are geographically close enough to be developed simultaneously, their average size, of about 110million barrels, makes their development uncertain from an economic point of view as most of them are located in deep water.”
Continuing the Opec theme, the IEA says Libya is considered a highly attractive oil province because production costs are low, it is close to Europe and it has well developed infrastructure. Not only that, Libya produces high-quality, low-sulphur oil.
Two major projects are currently under way: the redevelopment of the Sirte Basin and an expansion of the Nafoora field. Ten smaller projects over the next four to five years have an average reserve level of 120million barrels. Oil output in Libya is projected to increase from 1.9million bpd to 2.2million bpd by 2030.
The foregoing is just a taste of what is a massive and highly detailed piece of work by the IEA and one that should attract huge interest beyond just the headlines.
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