I made a too rare visit to Caithness recently, and found that Scrabster Harbour is not a bad vantage point from which to view future energy options, and not just for the local community.
Through their tenacity, the Scrabster Harbour Trustees, led by William Calder and Jock Campbell, have just succeeded in assembling a £20million package for the redevelopment of the harbour and acquisition of adjacent land to form an industrial estate.
With theatrical timing, the Scottish Government chipped in the last £2.2million on the eve of election purdah. The real story would have been if they had refused, since HIE, the ERDF and the Nuclear Decommissioning Authority had all made their contributions many months earlier.
The announcement by John Swinney majored on what Scrabster has to offer “the emerging marine energy sector and large-scale projects in the Pentland Firth”. And that is true. Something is bound to happen in the Pentland Firth, even if it is not as much as being touted.
Indeed, I was interested in the high degree of scepticism I kept coming across in Caithness about the reality of what is going on in the Pentland Firth, as opposed to the fairy story about Scotland being 100% powered by renewables by 2020, much of it coming from these very waters.
As often happens, proximity to the action lends a clearer sense of perspective. There is more awareness in Thurso than in Edinburgh about the strength of the natural forces that have to be overcome if the Pentland Firth is to produce any electricity, far less live up to its “Saudi Arabia” billing.
And there is also more knowledge of what is actually going on but manages to stay out of the headlines, while plaudits are heaped upon “the emerging marine energy sector”. For wave power, that essentially means the same old problem – every time a really big wave comes along the technology is in trouble.
Tidal is more hopeful, but the problems behind placing large numbers of huge industrial machines in the middle of hostile waters, and then trying to bring power ashore, are still pretty severe.
I was told that there are already proposals for more than 1,000 structures in the Pentland Firth, and I can’t help wondering when other marine and environmental interests are going to start looking askance at that prospect.
None of this need trouble Scrabster too much, at least in the short term. Every utility is covering a base by investing relatively small sums in marine renewables. There is enough research & development money floating around to keep a modest industry going for years, even if the holy grail takes a little longer. With the Pentland Firth on its doorstep, it should not be too difficult for Scrabster to take some of that work.
Interestingly, however, the scepticism about renewables was matched by a very positive outlook on what the oil & gas industry is likely to be doing west of Shetland. Scrabster Harbour Trust’s own rationale for redevelopment gives equal billing to marine renewables and “logistical support for & oil and gas developments on the Atlantic Frontier”.
And here they really might be on to something. With oil prices set to stay somewhere between high and very high, the economics of developing the West of Shetland fields – which still benefit from a more favourable tax regime than the rest of the North Sea – look good. There have been a few recent drilling announcements. And a redeveloped Scrabster Harbour is well placed to serve some of the needs which will follow.
But then let’s not forget Caithness’s bird in the hand: the nuclear industry. There are still a couple of thousand people employed at Dounreay and many more in the local supply chain. Decommissioning work will keep most of them going for the next 10 to 15 years at least.
My own view is that Caithness should not be forced for political reasons to treat the nuclear industry as a “sunset” operation, with no new tasks being taken on. In the post-Fukishima world, there is going to be a huge demand for the kind of rare nuclear skills which, for historic reasons, exist in abundance around Thurso.
This should remain a source of economic strength and should be built on so that careers in the nuclear-related industries continue to be attractive options, instead of people being constantly told that it will all be gone in a few years time. I am certain that, in 2020, there will still be more people dependent on the nuclear industry for jobs in Caithness than are likely to be working in renewables.
Nobody is talking, or ever was, about nuclear new-build at Dounreay, but there are many other aspects of the nuclear industry that offer long-term career prospects around the globe which Caithness is uniquely placed to service. Generic prejudice against all things nuclear should not cause that opportunity to be ignored.
In fact, the view from Caithness is pretty clear. And it is the same as from Scotland and the UK as a whole – we need a balanced energy policy with not too many eggs in one basket. Eventually the common sense of that approach will become irresistible. And I hope Scrabster Harbour and Caithness can benefit on all of these fronts.