World wind-based power-generation capacity will nearly triple in the next five years despite the current global economic downturn, according to the Global Wind Energy Council.
It says this will be led by tremendous growth in China, coupled with steady expansion in Europe and North America.
GWEC predicts that, in 2013, global wind generating capacity will reach 332 gigawatts, up from 120GW at the end of 2008.
That is more than five times current UK peak demand of around 60GW (transmission entry capacity is 75GW).
Indeed, during 2013 alone, this organisation is forecasting that the equivalent of almost today’s UK demand will be added – more than 53GW.
Year-on-year growth during the period 2009-13 is forecast to average 22%, which is modest compared with an average increase of 28% over the last 10 years.
“Strong policy support for wind power will continue to drive growth in our three main markets: China, Europe and the US.
Governments are turning the current crisis into an opportunity, putting wind power at the centre of their economic stimulus and recovery programmes,” said Steve Sawyer, GWEC’s secretary general.
For the past several years, two markets have continuously outperformed GWEC’s most optimistic expectations – the US and China.
However, it expects Stateside growth to be “hampered” by the banking debacle, at least until President Obama’s attempts to jolt the world’s largest economy back to life with various financial stimulus packages.
Despite gloomy reporting by Western media about the impact of the financial slump on China, GWEC sees the Chinese storming ahead at a “breathtaking rate”.
“China has been doubling its installed capacity every year for the past four years, and growth is expected to continue at a tremendous rate,” said Sawyer.
This development is underpinned by a very aggressive government policy supporting the diversification of the electricity supply and the growth of the domestic industry, and making significant investments in transmission infrastructure. China is set to become the world’s largest market for new installations in 2009.
GWEC also pointed out that: “Neither the threat of climate change nor the macroeconomic insecurity due to reliance on imported fossil fuel is going to go away because of the recession.”
Sawyer said: “The 332GW of global wind capacity we forecast for 2013 will produce 730 TWh of clean electricity and save 438million tons of CO every year.
“This is the equivalent to displacing about 90 large coal-fired power stations, showing yet again the key role that wind energy can, and must, play in fighting climate change.
Overall, wind power is well on track to saving a total of 10billion tons of CO by 2020.”
Despite this bullish stance, GWEC’s secretary general warned: “While developments in 2008 show that the sector is on track to meet this target, a strong signal from national governments is needed to show that they are serious about moving away from fossil fuels and protecting the climate.
“A new global climate-change agreement needs to come out of the United Nations ‘COP 15’ climate meeting in Copenhagen in December, 2009.
“An agreement is needed to send the right signals to industry, investors and the finance sector in order for wind power to reach its full potential.”
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