Oil demand will continue to go before peaking in 2030 – while natural gas growth will rise quicker than other energy demands, according to a new report from industry giant Statoil.
The growth of shale gas and tight oil will see natural gas become an increasingly important part of global energy demand.
“Together with rising bio-fuels and gas-to-liquids production, these ‘new’ types of oil liquids will play an important role in replacing most of the declining conventional non-Opec crude production over the next decades,” said Statoil chief economist Eirik Wærness.
The findings form part of Statoil’s Energy Perspectives report, looking at the long-term state of the industry. It predicts primary energy demand will grow by up to 40% over the next 27 years, with most of the growth being driven by non-oECD countries.
Oil will grow around 0.5% growth per year while renewable energy sources are predicted to grown by 8.9%, increasing their market share to almost 8% – although fossil fuels will still supply almost three quarters of the primary energy demand by 2040.
Demand for oil will still hit 100million barrels per day despite a predicted slowing in the growth of demand against other energy sources, with price and technology set to put focus onto other sources, the report says.
“With maturation of the world’s largest oil and gas fields, this raises major challenges in terms of stemming decline and replacing current production,” says Wærness.
Waerness predicts a rapid growth in the use of natural gas at the expense of coal, despite the findings of the BP annual energy report this week which showed coal’s increasing growth in areas such as the Far East.
Natural gas demand is predicted to grow faster than total energy demand on a global scale, by 1.6% per year until 2040 as gas’s market share increases.
Tapping into supplies of shale gas is expected to drive this, as will environmental concerns about other sources.
“The example of the United States serves as a reminder that increased availability of one fossil fuel, gas, could reduce demand for another fossil fuel, coal, with very positive effects on carbon emissions,” says Wærness.
The full report can be read here.
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