The Canadian Association of Oilwell Drilling Contractors (CAODC) has released its 2015 Drilling Activity Forecast, which projects a 10% decrease in activity.
The forecast is that Canadian land-based drilling rigs will drill 10,354 wells next year.
The uncertainty around pipeline construction was a determining factor in the activity outlook.
No mention is made of the current slide in global oil prices as being an influencing factor.
Drilling rig activity is a powerful economic indicator for the oil and gas industry.
Onshore Canada the rule of thumb is that each active rig generates between 135 and 200 direct and indirect jobs.
However, the association reports that this economic activity is currently limited due to the inability of the Canadian industry to access overseas markets.
Mark Scholz, president of the CAODC, said: “The BC (British Columbia) government is weighing decisions that will have significant impact on industry activity.
“The current uncertainty has been factored into this forecast.
“If a direction is established regarding pipeline construction or LNG terminals, then we will defintely revisit these projections.”
Drilling activity follows a specific annual cycle in Canada, as it does in many other energy provinces, including the North Sea.
In Canada, rig utilisation and operating days are highest in the first quarter.
Second quarter drops due due to spring break-up of winter ice.
The third quarter sees strengthening activity, and the fourth quarter trends higher still as cold weather opens more opportunity.
CAODC anticipates that rig utilisation in 2015 will average out to 61% in the first quarter, 19%in the second quarter, 41% in the third quarter and 46% in the fourth quarter.
The CAODC registered fleet will begin 2015 with 809 rigs.
It is estimated that the CAODC-registered land-based drilling fleet will grow slightly and finish 2015 with 813 rigs.
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