Only a fortnight ago we thought that Westminster would now be embroiled in coalition negotiations with the Conservatives seeking to build a majority with the Liberal Democrats, UKIP and the DUP.
Meanwhile Labour would be waiting for this to fail while working up some sort of arrangement with the SNP.
But the polls underestimated the final number of Tory seats in England while Labour’s worst case scenario in Scotland came true.
The Conservatives have their first majority in 18 years and the SNP have taken all but three of the Westminster seats in Scotland.
David Cameron will be keen to crack on with implementing the Conservative manifesto as soon as possible while his party is behind him and his relatively slim majority is protected from rebellions and by-elections.
Tucked into next week’s Queen’s Speech we will see plans for an EU referendum bill, English votes for English laws and the all-important Scotland Bill.
Meanwhile, with the Labour Party (the official Opposition) embarking on a protracted leadership contest, Angus Robertson MP, leader of the SNP in Westminster, has been quick to assert that his party as the “real opposition” to the Tories, at least as far as Scotland is concerned.
I recently wrote about the challenges and opportunities facing Nicola Sturgeon’s SNP – namely juggling the responsibilities of Government in Holyrood with managing a vastly increased number of MPs in Westminster.
The SNP’s ability to be fleet of foot in campaigning will be a strength in Westminster where the new political balance means there is little chance they will be expected to support any legislation.
They need to show the Scottish electorate the point of electing so many SNP MPs, demonstrating that they are able to give Scotland a voice and influence at Westminster.
The Conservative majority will help the SNP solidify their position in Scotland as the anti-Tory party. The challenge will be to move the debate beyond constitutional reform and demonstrate that they are making a practical difference as MPs in Westminster.
Looking more specifically at oil and gas, the Conservative’s 2015 manifesto was light on detail saying that the party would “continue to support” the sector.
However, with big reforms in the last Parliament and the creation of the OGA, the onus is on the industry to demonstrate cost efficiencies.
The Government is still committed to a competitive tax regime that encourages investment in the North Sea and believes it has addressed this (for now) through measures announced by George Osborne in his most recent Budget.
More broadly Conservative policy supports the expansion of new nuclear and onshore gas, as well as green energy (when it proves good value). The new Energy Secretary, Amber Rudd MP, is a climate realist and will support moves to meet climate obligations in a way that is affordable and acceptable to the public.
Miss Rudd has already discussed moves to implement the Conservative’s opposition to the expansion of onshore wind by devolving decision making to the local level.
It means that projects in England will need local support before they get the go-ahead. The Energy Secretary has also suggested she’ll be looking at ways to expand the opportunity to extract shale gas by allowing extraction from under National Parks but only if drilling takes place outside of these.
Planning for onshore wind, oil and gas is devolved in Scotland.
UK Government legislation will clearly not have a direct impact but the Smith Commission does contain measures to devolve offshore licensing to the Scottish Government.
The focus of the SNP’s efforts will be on securing measures in the Scotland Bill that allows the Edinburgh Government to put the brakes on austerity, especially in relation to welfare.
That said, the SNP will undoubtedly seek to make its voice heard in the UK’s dealings with European Union and the United Nations on numerous issues including energy and climate change.
There’s never been a greater need for our political representatives to really understand what the industry needs if it’s to maximise economic recovery for the treasury and ultimately the country.
I’d encourage everyone to engage with their newly elected MP as much as possible to make sure the industry’s voice is heard in Westminster and Holyrood.
Moray Macdonald is the managing director of Weber Shandwick in Scotland
