Protests continued in Senegal on March 8 as a leading opposition politician faced charges of sexual assault.
The arrest of Ousmane Sonko, a former tax collector and leader of Pastef-Les Patriotes, on March 3 triggered an outbreak of violence. Clashes between protestors and security forces left at least eight people dead.
The authorities had accused Sonko of assaulting a masseuse. The official has accepted he visited the massage parlour but has denied assault.
Sonko was on his way to answer the charges when the police objected to the route he had chosen. The police arrested him and they charged him with public order offences.
Senegal is due to hold its next presidential election in 2024.
Demonstrations on March 3 and 4 were in violation of health restrictions, the government said. These led to “regrettable acts of vandalism and violence” and the death of one man. An investigation will be held into the circumstances of this death, it said.
Control Risks’ associate analyst Oulimata Soumare described the arrest of Sonko as “the tip of the iceberg. Beneath the surface, this movement is disputing the arbitrary arrest of political activists and members of civil society, restrictions on press freedom, and the excessive use of force by police.”
The government’s arrest and trial of Sonko has “struck a nerve within his Pastef party’s support base in Casamance, but the protests are quickly morphing into a broader movement against President [Macky] Sall”, said Verisk Maplecroft’s Africa research analyst Eric Humphery-Smith.
Protestors have targeted French-owned businesses. France is a major partner of Senegal and Sall is seen as having close links with the former colonial power.
“The government’s inconsistent approach to the protests – ranging from zero-tolerance use of force by security forces to standing them down entirely – is proving to be self-defeating,” Humphery-Smith continued.
M2D
The arrest of the politician triggered the launch of a new group, the Mouvement de Défense de la Démocratie (M2D).
This group launched a three-day protest on March 8, calling for a peaceful demonstration starting at 3 pm in central Dakar. Sonko was due to participate in the protest.
M2D aims to preserve “democracy and the rule of law in Senegal”. The group called for the release of political prisoners.
Amnesty International called for restraint. “Protests in Senegal have already led to the deaths of at least eight individuals last week, some of them caused by the use of excessive force and firearms by security forces,” the group’s West and Central Africa Director Samira Daoud said.
“Security forces policing demonstrations must wear distinctive uniforms that clearly identify them as such.
“Individuals in plain clothes armed with sticks, clubs and guns at several sites were observed beating up protesters during last week’s protests in the full view of security forces and even using firearms in some parts of the capital. Authorities must also investigate the presence and the role of these individuals.”
Among those arrested is rapper Thiat, from Y’en a Marre. This group was formed to mobilise the people for the removal of Abdoulaye Wade in the 2012 elections.
Verisk Maplecroft’s Humphery-Smith said the arrest of Y’en a Marre protestors was notable, as they had helped Sall win in the 2012 elections. “This could signal the beginning of a much wider anti-Sall coalition.”
Charges
Sonko issued a statement in February saying the Senegalese president was behind the “plot”. The gendarmerie had cleared him of the sexual assault charge, he said.
Sall is attempting to turn public opinion against Pastef, Sonko said.
The incumbent president won his re-election bid in February 2019, securing 58% of the vote. Sonko took the third place, with 15.67% of the votes.
Pandemic impact
Control Risks’ Soumare said that underneath the looting is “a deteriorating social and economic context, with policies failing to address high levels of youth unemployment and disillusion.
“President Macky Sall will have to address social grievances before the next electoral cycle, later this year or in 2022. This protest has quickly grown into a pro-democracy movement that disputes social injustice and nepotism.
“As Senegal faces the economic impact of the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, rising inequality will force Sall to make more rapid adjustments to his development plan.”
A paper from November 2020 highlighted the impact of COVID-19 in heightening inequality and reducing income. An economist at the Cheikh Anta Diop University, Abdoulaye Seck, wrote that the worst case scenario would be a negation of poverty reduction gains in the last 20 years.
Dakar has been at the heart of reported COVID-19 cases. The government took steps to tackle the spread of the pandemic through bans on public gatherings, travel, price controls and restrictions on markets.
Senegal had been growing strongly before the pandemic and poverty rates have fallen. “These positive economic and social trends are poised to be altered significantly by the crisis,” Seck wrote. The World Bank has said growth could fall from a projected 5.3% to 1.3% in 2020.
The World Food Programme reports that 39% of Senegal’s population live in poverty.
Disruption
BP and Woodside Energy are leading work on two major projects in Senegal, the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim LNG and Sangomar development respectively.
“Planning for Phase 1 Sangomar drilling continues. We are in contact with our Dakar team who are all safe and accounted for. The team continues to work from home due to COVID restrictions,” a Woodside representative said.
Total is the leading supplier of petroleum products in the country and has around 180 fuel stations. The company declined to comment.
“For a country used to peaceful protest, reducing tensions will be key if the government wishes to calm bondholders and investors in major energy projects,” said Humphery-Smith.
The Timis affair
Sonko has previously been critical of deals involving the energy sector. He wrote a book, “Oil and gas in Senegal: chronicle of a spoliation”
BP’s operations in Senegal, and links to Frank Timis and Timis Corp., were at the heart of a BBC documentary in June 2019. The BBC has said Timis and Timis Corp. have issued a legal claim against the film, as of December 2020.
The documentary raised claims against Sall’s brother, Aliou Sall, around secret payments. A Senegalese court dismissed the charges against Aliou Sall at the end of 2020, according to local news reports.
Sonko has been critical of the deals with Timis. The Romanian-Australian executive sold his interests in the country’s offshore to BP in 2017.
Should Sonko secure more power, the question of Aliou Sall’s involvement in the Petro-Tim scandal is likely to resurface, Soumare said.
“Oil majors – old and new – will face renewed public scrutiny over their local content and environmental plans.
“If Sonko consolidates nationwide support and campaigns on a pledge to renegotiate contracts in 2024, many operators will be anxious. However, renegotiating contracts is a very difficult mission, one that current President Macky Sall has been unable to achieve.”
Updated on March 9 at 08:12 with response from Woodside, Total.