The fracking boom did more than boost oil and gas production in areas where shale drilling was most intense. It also led to an increase in the the number of babies born, according to a new study.
The analysis, by University of Maryland economists Melissa Kearney and Riley Wilson, examined the relationship between income, fertility and marriage — confirming, as plenty of parents will tell you, that the decision to have a child is easier when steady paychecks are coming in. At the same time, the study showed that rising incomes don’t necessarily lead to more marriages, an idea supported by previous research.
The paper stems from this question: If the declining economic fortunes of less-educated men made them less attractive as husbands, what happens when those same men suddenly see their incomes skyrocket, as they did during the fracking explosion of the late 2000s?
In rural parts of Texas, Wyoming, Pennsylvania, and Colorado, the industry created plentiful and lucrative blue-collar jobs and a bonanza of attractive bachelors. Predictably, childbearing rates rose in those areas: About three more births per thousand women, or three percent above the baseline rate.
But those well-paid jobs for men without college diplomas did nothing to bring down the rate of births to unwed women, which now account for 40 percent of American babies, an all-time high. Although more children are now born to unmarried couples who live together, generally speaking babies born out of wedlock live tougher lives — as do single parents.
Along with childbearing, marriage is also an economic decision. The long-term rise in out-of-wedlock births has something to do with declining earnings potential of less-educated men, recent research has found, as women find partnering up to be less financially beneficial.
Why didn’t the marriage rate or the share of babies born to unwed mothers change in areas near the nation’s shale plays, despite the money rolling in? Perhaps, the researchers speculated, social attitudes are playing a greater role than economic factors, as out-of-wedlock births no longer carry the stigma they once did.
To further explore the idea that social norms shape the decision to marry and bear children, the paper compared the fracking boom in the 2000s with the rise of the coal industry in Appalachia in the 1970s. Then as now, more babies were born as incomes improved. But back then, the share of babies born to unwed mothers declined substantially, suggesting that economic trends and social expectations were both working in favor of more traditional family structures.
Now, that’s not to suggest that it’s easy to boost two-parent households by changing what’s socially acceptable, either. Over the years, policymakers have tried a number of programs to promote marriage, with little success.
Since neither improving economic prospects for men nor pro-marriage social engineering makes a dent in the rate of out-of-wedlock births, the trend may be beyond the ability of politicians to influence.
This article first appeared on the Houston Chronicle, an Energy Voice content partner. For more click here.