Hitting climate change emissions targets is possible but will need “immediate and coordinated global action”, Statoil’s chief economist has warned.
The Norwegian operator’s Eirik WærnessEirik Wærness said avoiding the two degrees Celsius increase would be a achievable.
However he said that a move towards a low-carbon energy system would need massive changes to fuel mixes and consumer behavior.
Wærness said: “We believe it is possible to realise energy emission reductions consistent with the two-degree target, but it will require immediate and coordinated global action.
“We should not underestimate the needed transformation, both in terms of energy efficiency improvements, fuel mix changes and modified consumer behaviour.
“Unfortunately, many factors today work against such a transformation.”
The warning comes as Statoil publishes the seventh edition of its Energy Perspectives report.
It describes three different scenarios for global macroeconomic development, energy demand, energy mix, and energy-related greenhouse gas emissions.
And for the first time the forecast period is extended to 2050.
Recognising the uncertainties of predicting future energy markets, the report contains three different scenarios about the future, building on different sets of assumptions;
Reform: The starting point is the national climate commitments of the Paris agreement (COP21). It gradually puts more weight on market-driven developments in global energy markets, with policies playing a supportive role.
Renewal: An ambitious and very challenging back-casted scenario delivering a trajectory for energy-related emissions consistent with the 2-degree target.
Rivalry: A future which is impacted by geopolitical and economic conflict and larger differences between regions, both with regards to economic development and transformation of the energy systems.
The main development trends in all scenarios are that the global population is growing, more people are becoming part of the global middle class, economic growth is continuing, and hence the underlying global demand for products, services, and activities that require energy is increasing.
Renewal is the scenario that describes a possible route towards energy-related emissions consistent with a two-degree target.
According to Statoil, this will require “unprecedented” global cooperation on policies and regulations, and on technology development related to energy supply and demand.
Statoil’s chief executive Eldar Sætre said: “Failing to transform the world’s energy systems will have negative effects across the globe and for all parts of society.
“We support a development where the world moves in a sustainable direction where climate change targets are met along with other important sustainable development goals as set out by the UN.”
Oil demand is expected to increase into the 2020s. Dependent on scenario, oil demand in 2050 ranges from below 65 to above 120 million barrels per day, compared to around 97 today.
the Renewal scenario, oil supply in 2050 from new reserves not currently in production, will correspond to 15-25 times the current production of Norway.
Statoil’s strategy
Statoil claim it will actively shape its business to deliver high value with a low carbon footprint.
Sætre said: “Statoil supports the Paris agreement. We believe that being able to produce oil and gas with lower emissions, while also growing in profitable renewables, will give competitive advantages and provide attractive business opportunities in the transition to a low carbon economy.”
The company has a strategic ambition to allocate 15-20% of its annual investments towards these new energy solutions in 2030.
A low carbon footprint from operations will increasingly be a competitive advantage, and as a part of Statoil’s strategy, the climate roadmap sets a clear ambition in being a leading company in carbon-efficient oil and gas production.
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