The UK will likely need new gas-fired power stations to decarbonise the electricity grid by 2030, according to a new report.
The National Engineering Policy Centre report found the UK will need additional baseload power, and new nuclear plants will not be ready in time.
The report referred to modelling which suggests that even in a highly decarbonised system, some unabated fossil capacity may be called upon in at least 25% of hours across the year in 2030 “even if only for a small proportion of total generation”.
Maintaining a strategic reserve of unabated gas capacity is “therefore a crucial aspect of ensuring security of supply”, the report said.
The UK government will need to ensure that short-term signals do not encourage existing gas-fired capacity to close down while still needed, as well as extending the life of some plants.
“With this done, it may still be necessary to build new gas-fired capacity. This counterintuitive measure can be made consistent with the path to fully decarbonised energy by ensuring that any plant expected to operate at a significant load factor is made ‘low-carbon-ready’,” the report adds.
© Supplied by AltradThe report also found delivery of a highly decarbonised electricity by the end of the decade will require a sharp increase in offshore wind capacity, as well as advocating for extending the life of existing nuclear assets where possible.
Other recommendations included encouraging domestic and industrial electricity users to shift demand to times when wind and solar generation is highest and using a variety of storage solutions to smooth supply.
Electrifying heat and transport, expanding carbon capture and storage projects, investing in a broader range of renewables and a national engineering workforce strategy were also recommended.
Radical shift in approach needed
Report author and Mott MacDonald head of strategy Dr Simon Harrison said the scale of work required to decarbonise the UK electricity system in under seven years “cannot be underestimated”.
“But the precedent set by the rapid delivery of the Covid-19 vaccine shows that the collective pursuit of a national mission can put a seemingly impossible target within reach,” Harrison said.
“A radical shift in our approach will be needed, but the engineering community has already come together to map that out in this report, and it is ready to roll up its sleeves to deliver the clean energy we need.”
Royal Academy of Engineering president Professor Sir Jim McDonald said there is “no time to waste”.
“Decarbonising our electricity under an accelerated timeline will not only provide societal benefits through an energy system that is less vulnerable to global disruption, but it also creates an opportunity for the UK to lead on the infrastructure, technology and engineering skills that will shape the future,” he said.
