Doubling the share of renewables in the global energy mix by 2030 is feasible, but only with concerted action to jump-start their use in transport, building and industry.
Bioenergy is seen as being a critical component to achieving this objective. And if it is, then the sector could “sustain 24.4million jobs worldwide” just 15 years from now.
But IRENA warns in its 2016 roadmap to a renewable energy future that policies now in place would increase the renewable share in the global energy mix to only 21% by 2030.
Starting with the 18.4% renewable share in 2014, average annual growth would amount to 0.17 of a percentage point, which is far short of the 1.0 percentage point a year required.
Global energy demand continues to grow – it is predicted to be 30% higher in 2030 compared to the level today – and the pace of renewables deployment is only slightly higher.
To achieve the necessary doubling, the International Renewable Energy Agency (alter ego to the oil & gas-led International Energy Agency) warns that “urgent and concerted” action is needed, both nationally and through greater international cooperation.
However, IRENA points out that doubling does not imply doubling in every country. While some countries have raised their outlook for renewable energy adoption in the last two years, others have postponed investments.
And the agency says that bio-energy will have to account for half of renewable energy use in 2030 for a high enough renewable share overall.
“Bio-energy must be reinvigorated in all its forms, including advanced liquid biofuels for aviation, freight and shipping applications,” says IRENA in its latest analysis.
“Enough sustainable bio-energy is available to reach this target. Consistent with many other global estimates, IRENA finds that sustainable primary bio-energy use can increase by nearly 70% between today and 2030.”
For renewables other than bio-energy, growth potential is even higher:
Solar PV power generation can grow sevenfold, from 230gigawatts (GW) of capacity at the end of 2015 to 1,600-2,000GW by 2030.
Wind power can more than quadruple, from 400GW in 2015 to over 1,800GW.
“If the steps outlined in this roadmap are followed, nearly half of global power generation will be renewable by 2030, compared to less than a quarter in 2015,” states IRENA.
“The renewable energy share would also surge in others, with increases to as high as 57% in buildings, 35% in industry and 16% in transport.”
While the outlook for renewables in the power sector is viewed as “highly positive”, advances in transport, heating and industry have been slower.
In contrast, an electric-transport revolution may be drawing closer, but IRENA reports that liquid biofuel uptake is hurt by low oil prices. Renewable energy adoption for buildings has also slowed, and industry, in particular, is often overlooked in country plans.
“Countries must accelerate their uptake of renewables in buildings, industry and transport without delay,” says the agency.
“Consumption of renewable power will account for around half of the total renewable energy use in 2030, while the rest would come from direct uses, such as biofuel-based heating, cooking, cooling and transport, as well as district heating.”
Related to the buildings, transport, heating and industry issues, the agency insists that planning must start now to ensure the successful integration of variable renewable power.
Wind and solar PV power generation are influenced by weather and daylight patterns, resulting in variable output. With higher shares of wind and solar, the power system needs more flexibility.
IRENA suggests that linking excess renewable power generation with heating and transport demand is one way to provide such flexibility.
However, limited deployment in some government projections stems from a lack of incentives for renewables in buildings and industry.
Renewable-heat policies often receive less attention than those for electricity, in part because renewables are more easily deployed in new buildings.
But then standing capital stock with long lifespans is an impediment to change. So, renewable energy is more difficult to deploy in refurbishment and renovation schemes than in new buildings.
IRENA suggests that other barriers can also play a role; for example, in the aviation sector, the use of renewable fuel is negligible, because price plays a bigger role in competition between airlines compared to environmental performance.
According to IRENA, doubling the renewables share of energy requires annual investments in power generation, heating, cooling and biofuel capacity to rise from $360billion in 2015 to $1.3trillion by 2030.
It is acknowledged that renewables generally require steeper upfront investment than non-renewable energy technologies . . . at least for now . . . but without ongoing fuel costs thereafter during the operational phase.
IRENA states too that the cost of doubling the renewable energy share by 2030 would be $290billion per year and that, according to its analysis, “this is at least four and up to 15 times less than the external costs avoided”.
In other words, the reduction of CO2 emissions and air pollution damage on human health and agricultural crops offer the potential for annual net savings of between $1.2trillion and $4.2trillion.
“The reduction of air pollution both indoors and outdoors promises the largest savings, between $1.05trillion and $3.2trillion per year in 2030 with the share of renewable energy doubled in the world’s energy mix by 2030,” says IRENA.
“Indoor air pollution caused by traditional uses of bio-energy accounts for the largest share of reduced externalities, followed by outdoor air pollution and climate change.
“The reduction of air pollution can save up to an estimated 4million lives per year with the share of renewables doubled in the world’s energy mix by 2030.
“Higher shares of renewable energy will also bring significant energy security benefits, either through reduced import dependence or enhanced trade balances.”
An important aspect of renewables technologies application today and into the future is that falling costs are helping to drive growth.
Prices for equipment and installation and project finance are all expected to carry on dropping.
Not only that, it seems that renewables are now currying favour with the moneymen.
“The banking sector has recognised the reliability and low operational costs of renewables and has responded by offering interest rates at record lows.
“Investors appreciate that wind and solar power can balance out their energy portfolios and hedge against tightening regulations on fossil fuels.
“The drop in oil prices over the past 18 months has not affected the prospects for renewables.
“2015 saw record highs in renewable energy investments, with solar photovoltaics and wind capacity additions at all-time highs. Renewable energy technologies are today among the most cost-competitive options for power generation.”
However, IRENA complains that fossil-fuel subsidies and taxes continue to distort energy markets and that, for now, both subsidies and market structures continue to tip the scales in favour of fossil fuels.
The agency requests that encouraging investments through market restructuring should therefore be a priority.
“Reducing market discrimination against renewables can eliminate the need for investment support, otherwise estimated at $400billion per year in 2030 to implement.”
It is already noted that renewables are becoming increasingly attractive to the financial community. There is clear evidence too that the investment community are increasingly dumping fossil-energy investments from their portfolios.
IRENA pays particular attention to the impacts on coal; ignoring oil & gas. However, banks are, for example, now extremely nervous about investing in the North Sea.
IRENA says: “The divestment movement gained significant momentum in 2015. The amount of divestments pledged in 2014 stood at $0.05trillion, but that number skyrocketed to $2.6trillion before COP21 – and $3.4trillion during the conference (Henn and Dubois, 2015).
“Pension funds from the Netherlands to Norway and California are abandoning the fossil-fuel sector, as are private-sector investment funds. As a result, the value of coal assets is falling worldwide, with some company share prices falling as much as 90% over the course of 2015.
“Partly because of new emission regulations and partly because of market signals, numerous countries and regions worldwide have closed or plan to close coal facilities.
“Ontario, Canada, was coal-free in 2015 for the first time in modern history. Austria, Finland, France, Portugal, and the United Kingdom (UK) could all complete a coal phase-out within the next decade.
“Germany has resolved to shrink its giant Garzweiler II opencast lignite mine by a third, moving the closure date up to the late 2030s. The US has 200 coal plants scheduled for closure, and coal consumption is peaking in China – where the government also aims to set up the largest emissions trading platform worldwide by 2017.”
The list of state and non-state actors currently involved in divestment is even longer.
According to IRENA, an estimated 20,000 organisations are now members of the Climate Initiatives Platform.
The Lima to Paris Action Agenda (LPAA) and the NAZCA database list 10,800 climate mitigation commitments from 2,200cities and regions, along with 2,000 companies and 500 investors from more than 100 countries (NAZCA, 2016).
Collectively, they represent $75trillion of investment capacity.
