Climate energy goals remain “out of reach” despite the global energy transition, according to Wood Mackenzie (Woodmac).
The energy research firm claim fossil fuels will continue to dominate the market as the shift to renewables in the EU results in a sluggish power market and slowing transition to electric vehicles.
David Brown, senior analyst at Woodmac, said: “The global energy transition will continue to progress, led in large part to technologies and decarbonisation trends we’re already seeing in the marketplace – the rise of renewables, growth in electric vehicles, electrification of end-use demand, increasing efficiency.
“Our carbon-constrained scenario pushes the boundaries of our base-case view to illustrate a world where these trends join, and potentially outstrip, policy as a key force behind decarbonisation.
“This is a chance for us to step back and ask broader, strategic questions about the pace of change in the energy industry and what might be achievable if current market trends develop faster.”
Mr Brown warns that – under his firm’s scenario – the world still fails to achieve the two-degree path set out in the Paris Climate agreement.
While some forms of energy will suffer as consequence of the transition, such as coal, the pace of change will not be quick enough to meet global energy commitments.
Mr Brown: “Even with an accelerated pace of change, a ‘2-degree world’ remains out of reach in our accelerated scenario.
“Much more needs to happen around lowering non-power sector emissions to achieve such an outcome. Political momentum will be crucial and at present climate leadership is lacking.”
“While the EU is still way ahead of others markets with its carbon regime, G20 or OECD countries need to step up and outline the next phase of carbon policies.
“COP 24, the next UNFCC conference, will be a barometer for how carbon policy will play out. “
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