SOME marine energy technologies are showing signs of maturity but competition is needed before the sector takes off.
And there is still all to play for, according to industry players.
But early predictions that it would be wave power in the lead have been overturned.
It is two consented tidal arrays that look likely to lead off – ScottishPower Renewables’ Islay scheme and MeyGen’s Pentland Firth scheme (MeyGen is a consortium of Morgan Stanley, International Power and Atlantis Resources).
The lead of tidal over wave is not the only change.
Despite an expectation of a convergence in designs, there remains huge divergence in concepts.
Consultants Xodus and Aquatera believe a variety of devices to suit different sites or environments will emerge.
Finnish wave firm Wello’s founder Heikki Paakkinen and others say there is still scope for a new entrant to upturn the market again.
Recent weeks alone have seen Bluewater (Netherlands) and Kawasaki (Japan) announce plans to test devices at the European Marine Energy Centre on Orkney.
There will also be divergence in deployment and maintenance, says Gareth Davies, managing director of Aquatera.
The sector and supply chain has been on a steep learning curve, including dealing with 8-knot tidal streams.
But better and cheaper deployment options, including designing mooring systems into devices, are needed as some were costing “tens of millions”.
However, the industry has moved from “is it going to work” to “how to make it work better”, said EMEC’s managing director Neil Kermode.
“We’ve now got four wave machines and three tidal machines complete in the water and three in part commissioned,” he said. “That is a lot for a small island group and more than anywhere else.”
He said developers had also matured and “significant players” like Rolls-Royce, Siemens, ABB and Alstom, plus major utilities had joined the race.
Professor Jonathan Side, director of Heriot-Watt’s International Centre for Island Technology, Orkney, said the key was reliable, cost-efficient devices that, once commercial, could then be improved.
Pelamis, of Edinburgh, hopes to make wave machines competitive with offshore wind by 2020 but that ongoing political sector support is crucial.
The Crown Estate, which leases seabed, has just reduced the security required from developers from £25million to £5million.
The UK, plus eight other EU countries, recently signed a position paper on marine renewables, highlighting its potential for meeting energy demand and generating jobs.
The UK and Scottish governments have also announced plans to increase and bring into line wave and tidal Renewables Obligation Certificates levels.
But regulatory issues remain, including the current “disjunct” between licensing and leasing.
Wello chief operating officer Timo Lotti, thinks it will not be until there is performance competition and price comparison between devices that the market will really start growing.
Xodus’s Liz Foubister said there could be a sting in the tail: “I think there will be and needs to be more research of the impacts on the environment.”
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