The global oil surplus in the first half of this year will probably be smaller than previously estimated because of robust demand in India and other emerging nations, the International Energy Agency said.
Oil’s climb above $45 a barrel is reassuring influential figures from BP to the International Energy Agency that the industry is finally recovering from the worst slump in a generation. Others say the market is about to fall into the same trap as last year.
Oil markets are signaling that prices have bottomed out even as growth in demand for crude is forecast to slow this year, according to a senior executive at Vitol Group, the world’s largest independent oil trader.
Oil rose above $43 a barrel to its highest level so far in 2016 against a backdrop of a weak dollar, signs of increased demand from China and lingering hopes that a meeting of oil producers will agree steps to tackle the global supply glut.
Oil prices firmed in thin Easter holiday trading today, adding to gains in recent weeks as optimism holds that a production freeze among major producers may be implemented.
Oil rose above $42 a barrel on Friday, hitting its highest this year and extending a rally into a fourth week on expectations of a production freeze by major exporters, stronger seasonal demand and dollar weakness.
Oil advanced to $40 a barrel in London for the first time since December as U.S. drillers cut the number of active rigs to the least in more than six years amid a global glut.
Oil capped the biggest weekly gain since August amid signs of strengthening US fuel demand and speculation that some producers will complete an accord to freeze output.
JP Morgan will set aside an additional half a billion dollars to cover potential bad loans to oil and gas companies in the first quarter, underlining the sharp deterioration in the U.S. energy sector.
The influential International Energy Agency sees oil markets rebalancing in 2017 thanks to falling US production but the decline will prove short-lived as efficiency gains will push U.S. output to new records by the beginning of the next decade.
A brief rally in the cost of crude was brought to an abrupt halt after global oil giants failed once more to agree on production cuts, instead freezing output at its highest-ever level.
London’s FTSE 100 made modest gains, as a continued rally from heavyweight miners and a profit swing for oil and gas company BG Group pushed the index higher.
Oil dropped to a new 12-year low below $30 a barrel in New York, while the discount on global benchmark Brent reached a five-year high as Iran moved closer to restoring exports.
The average Brent crude oil price for 2016 is likely to be $40 per barrel and unlikely to rise above $50 ber barrel in 2017, according to the US Energy Information Administration.