Oil held gains after the US and UK made a fresh round of strikes against Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, fanning tensions in the Middle East and offsetting concerns global supplies remain ample.
Oil prices are likely to fall below $80 a barrel even with OPEC’s recent apparent efforts to support that level with unexpected cuts, according to Ed Morse, global head of commodities research at CitiGroup.
Oil eased after a turbulent session even as a calmer tone returned to financial markets rattled by a global banking crisis, with investors on alert for any signs of fresh trouble that may hurt risk appetite.
Oil in London fell below $80 a barrel for the first time since early February as the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank added further turbulence to energy markets.
Oil prices may exceed $140 a barrel this year if Asian economies fully re-open after Covid-related lockdowns, according to hedge fund manager Pierre Andurand.
Oil’s miserable start to the year deepened as a deteriorating demand outlook came to the fore, buttressed by predictions for a US recession, China’s near-term struggle with Covid-19, and milder winter weather.
International oil price benchmark Brent Crude climbed in the year’s first session as traders digested mixed signals on demand from China, the world’s largest crude importer.
Oil rose as China took more steps to unwind its Covid Zero policy and freezing weather across the US prompted refinery closures in the vital Texas Gulf Coast area.
Oil steadied after a three-day gain as concerns that near-term Chinese demand may decline amid a surge in Covid cases offset support from lower US inventories and a weaker dollar.
In a deep-recession scenario, the price of Brent crude oil may sink into the low $60s/bbl by mid-2023, according to RBC Capital Markets, outlining a trio of outlooks while noting that forecasting is challenging at present.
Oil headed for its first quarterly loss in more than two years as escalating fears over a global economic slowdown and a stronger dollar overshadowed the prospects for tightening supply.
A “bazooka” of oil from the US reserve, lockdowns in China and a “surprising durability” of production in Russia are preventing Brent Crude oil from hitting $200 a barrel.