Global oil and gas companies are increasingly facing an uphill battle as global warming policies are taking their toll. Most analysts and market watchers are focusing on peak oil demand scenarios, but the reality could be much darker. International oil companies (IOCs) are likely to face a Black Swan scenario, which could end up being a boon for state-owned oil companies (NOCs).
More than two weeks of nearly uninterrupted price gains for crude oil ended this week, with the rally running out of steam. The question is what happens next?
Saudi Arabia and Russia just destroyed the oil price rally, potentially putting an end to all the speculation about what the group might do next. But higher production doesn't necessarily mean higher oil prices are entirely out of the question, and in fact, the oil market is still faced with a ton of uncertainty.
Oil prices could rise due to the “perfect storm of stagnant supply, geopolitical risk, and a harsh winter,” according to an April 12 note from Barclays.
It's possible that OPEC is crying wolf with hints of an output freeze next month in Algiers; but it's also possible that they are ramping up production to take the sting out of a freeze. This is a delicate balancing act that the Saudis need to play very carefully.
With prices set to double by 2018, we've seen the bottom of the uranium market, and the negative sentiment that has followed this resource around despite strong fundamentals, is starting to change.