OPEC and Russia’s plan to clear the global oil glut hasn’t worked as they hoped, but there’s little expectation the world’s largest producers will act more aggressively when they meet this weekend.
Libya’s rebounding oil output is undermining the supply curbs masterminded by Saudi Arabia and Russia. But any pleas for the OPEC member to exercise restraint will probably be resisted by the technocrat overseeing the North African nation’s turnaround.
Oil bulls grappling with Opec’s weakened resolve to curb output are also having to worry about waning demand in the world’s biggest buyer of overseas crude.
Oil traded near $46 a barrel after snapping a five-day gain on concern output in the US and Opec member Libya is growing just as demand shows signs of improvement.
Oil fell in New York, erasing earlier gains, after Saudi Arabia’s production last month was said to have risen above the cap it agreed on with fellow OPEC members.
Now is the time to maximize the impact of OPEC’s oil production cuts, yet the market is still waiting for the group’s biggest member to show it’s doing “ whatever it takes” to eliminate the global oversupply.
Russia wants to stick to the current OPEC deal and would oppose any proposal for deeper production cuts at the group’s ministerial meeting later this month, said four Russian government officials.
OPEC may need to make deeper supply cuts to rebalance the oil market as booming production from Libya and Nigeria threatens to undercut the group’s efforts, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
Oil’s slide below $45 a barrel stalled as investors weigh a forecast decline in U.S. crude stockpiles against a revival in output from Libya, which is exempt from the OPEC-led output cuts.
Oil traded below $45 a barrel after a fourth weekly loss on speculation that a record expansion by U.S. drillers will blunt OPEC-led efforts to rebalance an oversupplied market.
As if a mini-collapse in oil prices wasn’t bad enough for OPEC, the pattern in which futures contracts are trading years from now has flipped into the worst possible structure for the exporter group.
The oil guru who predicted the market rout in 2014 said OPEC and its allies should have gone much further when they extended their supply deal last month.
The latest selloff in oil prices have left speculators in a predicament: The fundamentals continue to look poor with unimpressive drawdowns in crude oil stocks, but there is a general consensus that the extension of the OPEC deal should push the market towards a rebalancing over the next few quarters.
If a single ship can capture the current state of the global oil, it’s the supertanker Saiq, floating idly about 850 kilometers (528 miles) south of the Canary Islands.