OPEC says the world will want more of its oil next year
OPEC predicted higher demand for its crude oil next year, sticking to its view that a strategy of letting prices fall will tame the US shale boom and cut a global surplus.
OPEC predicted higher demand for its crude oil next year, sticking to its view that a strategy of letting prices fall will tame the US shale boom and cut a global surplus.
Oil prices fell more than 2% today after Goldman Sachs cut its crude forecasts, citing global oversupply and concerns over the Chinese economy, and after Saudi Arabia dismissed the idea of an oil producer summit.
Few things have more potential to spook the oil market than the prospect of Russia joining forces with OPEC. Speculation that such a move was afoot last month drove crude to its biggest three-day gain in 25 years. Despite the market buzz, there are sound economic and technical reasons why this is unlikely to happen.
Indonesia is set to reactivate its membership of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in December. The move would add almost 3% to the group’s oil output, which is already close to a record high.
Oil declined for a second day as Venezuela proposed an OPEC summit to stabilize prices amid a global glut. Futures slid as much as 2 percent in New York. Producers from outside of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries including Russia will be invited to the meeting, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro told state-owned broadcaster Telesur. Cutting output for a short-term price gain isn’t the cure for the “sickness” affecting global markets, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said Friday. Oil has fluctuated the past three weeks as concerns overs slowing demand in China fueled volatility in global markets. Prices are down more than 25 percent from this year’s closing peak in June on signs the surplus will persist. OPEC members are sustaining output and U.S. crude stockpiles remain almost 100 million barrels above the five-year seasonal average.
Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies are at odds with Iran and other OPEC members over whether the organization should include oil-price forecasts in its long-term strategy report, according to three of the group’s delegates. The Gulf kingdom, which has led the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in a battle against rival producers, is seeking to exclude price assumptions from the report, according to the delegates, who asked not to be identified because the document isn’t public. The disagreement reflects internal divisions over whether OPEC policy should focus on prices or the stability of the oil market, one of the delegates said.
Iran's Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh blamed the latest drop in oil prices on some members of OPEC and questioned whether any OPEC emergency meeting would reach an agreement, the oil ministry's news agency Shana reported. "To balance the oil price... OPEC members should balance their production. An emergency meeting has been requested and we don't have a problem with that," Shana cited Zanganeh as saying.
Iran's Oil Minister, Bijan Zanganeh, said on Sunday that holding an emergency OPEC meeting may be "effective" in stabilising the oil price, Iran's oil ministry news agency Shana reported. Algeria said earlier this month that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries could hold an emergency meeting to discuss the drop in oil prices but other OPEC delegates said no meeting was planned. "Iran endorses an emergency OPEC meeting and would not disagree with it," Zanganeh told reporters in Tehran, according to Shana.
Saudi Arabia boosted crude output to a record, deepening a global supply glut and sending the country’s stocks down for a seventh day in the longest losing streak this year. The Tadawul All Share Index retreated 2.5 percent to close at 7,991.28 in Riyadh, less than 130 points away from a threshold for entering a bear market. The selloff in oil resumed as the kingdom said crude export in June beat a previous high set in 1980 as OPEC nations seek to maintain market share. Two months after Saudi Arabia opened its equity market to direct foreign investment, stocks have been reeling as crude’s plunge prompted the International Monetary Fund to warn the kingdom’s growth may slow. The Tadawul’s moving averages made a so-called death cross on Tuesday, a sign to some investors more declines lie ahead.
Oil prices fell in early Asian trading on Monday as Japan's economy contracted on the back of falling exports and consumer spending, adding to fears that Asia's biggest economies are starting to slow at the same time. U.S. crude was trading at $42.07 per barrel at 0012 GMT, 43 cents below their last settlement and close to more than six-year lows. Brent futures were at $48.69 a barrel, down 50 cents but still some way off from their 2015-low of $45.19. Japan's economy, the second biggest in Asia and number three in the world, shrank at an annualised pace of 1.6 percent in April-June as exports slumped and consumers cut back on spending.
The United Arab Emirates is open to meeting any demand for oil from India, the Gulf OPEC member's economy minister Sultan bin Saeed al-Mansouri told Reuters on Monday. Mansouri was speaking after meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is in the UAE on a two-day visit. "India is importing oil now and the UAE is open to meet demand for any oil from India," Mansouri said, adding that the issue would be discussed further by representatives of the two sides. Abu Dhabi currently provides 9 percent of India’s energy needs and India is the world's fourth biggest oil consumer.
OPEC could potentially boost crude oil production to 33 million barrels a day, the most ever, after international sanctions are removed against Iran amid a global supply glut, according to the country’s OPEC representative. The global oil market is already in surplus by about 3 million barrels a day, with Saudi Arabia and Iraq responsible for OPEC’s oversupply in the past six months, Iran’s state-run Islamic Republic News Agency reported Sunday, citing Mehdi Asali. Iran can boost output by 500,000 barrels a day within one week after sanctions are lifted, Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh said earlier this month.
Iran has selected 45 oil and gas projects to show international companies at a conference in London in December when new oil contract models will be discussed ahead of exploration auctions to double the country’s crude output.
OPEC's second-largest producer, Iraq, plans to export near-record volumes of Basra crude in September, up 20 percent from August, as it ramps up heavy oil production, trade sources said on Thursday. "There were a number of wells shut-in before Basra Heavy came out to minimise the quality impact on Basra Light," a source with knowledge of Iraqi oil production said. "Those are now being restarted." Iraq allocated 3.017 million barrels per day (bpd) of Basra crude for export in September, up from 2.52 million bpd in August, traders said, citing a preliminary loading programme from the State Oil Marketing Organization (SOMO).
Venezuela is pushing for an emergency OPEC meeting as well as joint coordination with Russia in a bid to stem the decline in oil price. President Nicolas Maduro said the cash-strapped country had called for a meeting to take place and said it had been in contact with all OPEC governments. He said:"We're working towards a special OPEC meeting, in coming days we'll announce .... We're making contacts with OPEC governments.
OPEC on Tuesday raised its forecast of oil supplies from non-member countries in 2015, a sign that oil's price collapse is taking longer to impact on shale and other competing sources than previously thought. In a monthly report, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) raised its forecast for non-OPEC supply this year by about 90,000 barrels per day (bpd).
Kuwait has set the official selling price (OSP) for crude oil sales to Asian buyers for September at $1.35 a barrel below the average Oman/Dubai quotes, up $0.45 from the previous month, a source familiar with the matter said on Tuesday.
OPEC member Algeria has increased crude oil output by 32,000 barrels per day after starting production at two fields, an energy ministry official said on Sunday. Production increased on Saturday when the Bir Sebaa field started producing 20,000 bpd in addition to 12,000 bpd from the Bir Msana field in Hassi Messaoud area, the official told Reuters. Algeria produced an average 1.1 million bpd in July, according to a Reuters survey.
OPEC expects increasing oil demand to prevent a further fall in prices and sees a more balanced market in 2016, its secretary-general said on Thursday, the latest sign the group is sticking to its policy of defending market share. Oil has dropped about 15 percent this month and halved in value in the past year but neither OPEC nor Russia, the world's top producer, have cut output to support prices, hoping cheaper oil will hit U.S. shale and other rival sources. "I would not expect they (prices) are going to fall because demand is growing," OPEC Secretary-General Abdullah al-Badri told reporters in Moscow. OPEC pumps around 40 percent of global oil production.
Russia and OPEC are pursuing the same goals of keeping the oil market balanced and stable, Energy Minister Alexander Novak told OPEC Secretary-General Abdullah al-Badri on Thursday. OPEC decided in June to keep oil production unchanged in a bid to defend its market share. Russia has also refused to take any action to support oil prices which have more than halved since last year. "The global oil market is being affected by various political factors. In particular, ... the agreement on Iran ... and its consequences ... will have an impact on the market," Novak said during a visit to Moscow by Badri.
A drop in oil prices this month is likely to be short-term and will not deflect OPEC from its policy of keeping output high to defend market share, delegates from Gulf OPEC members and other nations said. Falling Chinese stock markets and the Greek debt crisis have raised concern about demand, while the Iranian nuclear deal could lead to higher oil exports from the Islamic Republic. Benchmark Brent crude, trading below $57 a barrel on Wednesday, has fallen more than 10 percent in July. OPEC, in a major policy shift, decided in November against cutting its production target of 30 million barrels per day (bpd) to prop up prices, seeking instead to defend market share against U.S. shale oil and other competing sources. The group reconfirmed the strategy at a meeting in June.
The United Arab Emirates, the third-biggest OPEC oil producer, will link gasoline and diesel prices to global oil markets as the government seeks to remove subsidies. Fuel prices will deregulated from August 1, state-run WAM news agency reported, citing a statement from the Ministry of Energy on Wednesday. The change was ratified by the cabinet.
Oil prices may fall further as the world remains “massively oversupplied,” before markets tighten in 2016 when output growth outside OPEC grinds to a halt, according to the International Energy Agency.
Iraq’s self-ruling Kurds are threatening to bypass the country’s central government and sell oil produced in the neighboring Kirkuk region in a dispute over revenue from crude sales by OPEC’s second-largest producer.
Hedge funds reduced both bullish and bearish bets on oil for a fourth week as rising OPEC output was met with forecasts for a contraction in U.S. supply. Money managers trimmed their short wagers in West Texas Intermediate oil by 4.3 percent and long bets by 0.2 percent, leading to a 0.8 percent gain in the net-long position, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data for the seven days ended June 16 show.