Oil extended losses after its biggest one-day drop in more than two months as growing doubts over the strength of the global demand recovery along with continued weakness in stocks soured market sentiment.
A few dots near the bottom corner of the world map in the southern Atlantic, the Falkland Islands were once at the forefront of a new era for the oil industry as companies scoured the planet for resources.
The oil market turmoil brought on by Covid-19 has led to lower-than-anticipated activity and delayed projects, forcing the industry to deploy cost-cutting measures. A Rystad Energy analysis of the top 50 oilfield service (OFS) firms shows that staffing is set to reach its lowest level in more than 10 years, with the anticipated revenue per employee also declining towards the previous downturn’s level.
Oil firms must seize the opportunity presented by the Covid-19 pandemic to grasp the nettle and embrace digital technology and data analysis, industry experts have said.
Western Europe’s maintenance, modification and operations (MMO) market will likely take a major hit in 2020 a Rystad Energy impact analysis has revealed, thanks to severe spending cuts and Covid-19 transportation restrictions. Spending in Norway is expected to fall to $3.4 billion this year – an 18-year low – while UK spending is on track to fall to $2.9 billion, the lowest level seen since at least 1990.
The devastating effect of the Covid-19 pandemic on global oil and gas exploration and production (E&P) companies is better understood by looking at the industry’s expected total annual revenues for 2020.
The Covid-19 pandemic and the current low-oil-price environment have pushed global exploration and production operators to cut costs, scrapping all but the most vital of their investment plans. The supply industry that will suffer the most as a result is seismic, as shown by a Rystad Energy analysis, with revenues estimated to fall this year by 51% in a $30 Brent scenario and by 77% if the Brent falls to $20, compared to levels seen in 2019.
More assets are expected to hit the market across Asia Pacific this year following the sustained drop in global oil prices and the COVID-19 pandemic, which has destroyed energy demand growth as economic activity contracts.
With the reality that Brent oil prices are scratching closer and closer to $20 per barrel, shut-ins are already happening around the world. Even if prices reach this threshold, the UK will avoid shut-ins and exploration is likely to continue in 2020, although cash flow and project sanctioning will suffer, a Rystad Energy impact analysis shows.
Lower long-term LNG prices could encourage coal-to-gas switching in Northeast Asia, while Chinese LNG demand is also expected to expand this year, albeit at a slower rate, as China gets back to work.
While most international oil companies (IOCs) have stated they will make major spending cuts this year in response to the downturn, Asian national oil companies (NOCs) are expected to maintain domestic upstream spending to help employment and economic activity levels.
Despite a recently announced planned capital raising, Australian-listed Oil Search, which has major stakes in Papua New Guinea’s emerging LNG sector, is a prime takeover target, as mergers become more likely in a low oil price world.
A month after the last unproductive OPEC+ meeting and with Covid-19 slashing demand amid the ongoing price war, the US has managed to broker a new extraordinary meeting for oil-producing nations. Russia and Saudi Arabia will be back to the negotiating tele-table on 6 April 2020 to discuss the output cuts of at least 10 million barrels per day (bpd), first announced by US President Donald Trump on Twitter on 2 April 2020.
The spread of coronavirus continues to deepen the severity of the blow to global fuels demand. Rystad Energy now expects more than half of global oil demand growth to be lost in 2020. As global stocks increase by the day, the ongoing OPEC+ meeting is unlikely to result in cuts sufficient enough to balance the market, under all of our scenarios.
As China’s coronavirus epidemic continues to expand and more countries are affected, the slowdown in global oil and gas consumption this year will hit suppliers who will see average prices fall below previous expectations, according to Rystad Energy’s revised forecasts.
The coronavirus epidemic in China has triggered restrictions in the country’s public transport and air travel, both at a domestic and an international level, reducing demand for oil, which has lost about a fifth of its value since the start of the year.