A wave of oil and gas ‘megamergers’ across the pond could be coming our way, as Europe’s supermajors – focused in recent years on a tilt to investment in renewables and ESG concerns – look to fill their future reserves through large acquisitions.
Malaysia’s 2022 oil and gas bid round was a remarkable success, attracting fresh investment, new upstream explorers, as well as new ideas to the mix in Southeast Asia’s most successful market. Indeed, other Southeast Asian countries should take note as Malaysia also launched its 2023 round that will see more investors queuing up.
Chevron slammed by NGO's for selling its Myanmar assets to Canada's MTI Energy in a deal seen to benefit the military junta.
Underscoring the rising interest in Southeast Asia’s upstream market, North Sea-focused E&P company Longboat Energy (AIM:LBE), confirmed it is “exploring opportunities to broaden its strategic remit” in the region.
Will 2023 see the majors, including ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell, BP, ConocoPhillips, TotalEnergies, and Eni, divest upstream oil and gas assets in Southeast Asia?
Thailand’s state-backed energy company PTT Exploration and Production (PTTEP) expects to sell its Cash-Maple gas and condensate field in Australia in 2023, according to a report in the Bangkok Post.
Multi-billion-dollar oil and gas projects remain delayed in Vietnam and undermine the Southeast Asian nation’s ambitions to expand its gas production capabilities as it seeks to move away from coal-fired power.
TotalEnergies (LON:TTE), operator of the Papua LNG project, plans to use electric liquefaction trains at its proposed LNG export development in Papua New Guinea (PNG), as part of an effort to slash emissions, which also includes CCS.
The financial impact of Western sanctions and the wide scale exodus of foreign partners from the Russian oil and gas sector are beginning to materialise, with upstream investments set to sink to $35 billion in 2022, according to Rystad Energy research.
Natural gas is seen as an essential component of Indonesia’s energy transition with the government targeting to significantly boost upstream investment. Officials estimate $179 billion is needed to meet 2030 oil and gas production targets in Southeast Asia’s largest economy.
Shell (LON: SHEL) expects a dip in third quarter profits as a decrease in refining margins takes effect.
Unlike most governments in the economically developed Western world, Indonesia’s leaders are crying out for more upstream oil and gas investment. However, even as demand is projected to rise up to four times by 2050, Southeast Asia’s biggest economy is struggling to convince energy investors to come.
More merger and acquisition (M&A) opportunities are expected to hit the market in Asia Pacific, as international oil companies (IOCs) continue to rationalise their portfolios, and ESG concerns trigger further divestments. This will help to unlock the deal flow in APAC, but potential acquirers could struggle to secure necessary finance without a strong ESG narrative.
Global and regional upstream activities, including in Southeast Asia, are rising, as more exploration and development projects are evaluated and approved. Yet, the drilling rig market in the region is not as exciting as it should be, especially with global oil prices ranging between $100 and $120 per barrel in recent months.
Upstream oil and gas projects with over 1.4 billion barrels of resources and $8.5 billion worth of greenfield investments are targeted for final investment decisions (FIDs) in Southeast Asia this year, based on operators’ plans, reported Rystad Energy. However, delays are likely with more activity expected to happen next year, noted the energy consultancy.
Indonesia’s national energy company Pertamina is seeking an advisor to farm-out its upstream assets in the southeast Asian nation. Significantly, the company is seeking to sell down interests in five upstream assets that it operates.
Malaysia’s Petronas is seeking investors for 14 exploration blocks, six clusters of discovered resource opportunities and one cluster of late life assets in its Malaysia Bid Round 2022 (MBR 2022). Significantly, Petronas is making vast amounts of data available to potential investors.
Exploration activity is set to recover in Asia Pacific this year with exciting campaigns on the horizon driven by the region’s hunger for natural gas and a rising sense of urgency to prove up new resources, analysis from energy research firm Wood Mackenzie shows.
Global upstream merger and acquisition (M&A) deals rebounded to pre-Covid-19 levels in 2021, reaching a total of $181 billion, a 70% increase over 2020, Rystad Energy research shows. The total deal value for 2021 was the highest in three years and almost reached the highs seen in 2017 and 2018 of $205 billion and $199 billion, respectively.
While energy sector attention is focused on the low-carbon narrative, the short-term outlook for upstream activity is positive as we head into 2022. Consensus amongst industry analysts point to significant percentage increases in activity for next year, with further increases in 2023 and beyond.
The Indonesian government estimates that $187 billion needs to be invested in its upstream sector to meet its 2030 oil and gas production targets of 1 million barrels per day of oil and 12 billion cubic feet per day of gas. However, this target seems ambitious with major investors seeking to exit Indonesia's oil and gas sector, unless the government can attract local conglomerates.
International oilfield service companies are facing significant challenges winning contracts in Southeast Asia as local suppliers are increasingly securing available work.
With domestic supply in decline, Asia urgently needs to address its growing gas and energy needs. In the past few months, multiple energy crunches across the globe highlights that a flexible and reliable supply of energy is critical to keep markets and prices stable. In Asia, a growing gap between booming gas demand and falling supply is cause for significant concern.
The prospects for Indonesia’s Saka Energi appear to have improved based on the latest analysis from Moody’s Investors Service, which revised the troubled upstream player’s outlook from negative to stable.
Surging oil and gas prices will see the upstream industry generate a wall of cash, which in the past led to rising upstream spend. But the energy transition has upset the outlook for oil and gas producers, changing the rules of the game for not only international oil companies (IOCs), but also national operators and host governments, according to Wood Mackenzie.